Leopard tank maker planning an IPO, France urges citizens to leave Mali and Lafarge appeals terrorism financing conviction

It is May Day for those who celebrate. However, I am an American and a Latvian and a capitalist, sorry not sorry. While the US has tried a few different ways to supplant this day from memory, from former presidents George W. Bush's "Mission Accomplished" speech to Barack Obama's announcement of the death of bin Laden, the great myth of socialism, not yet realized in its pure form according to aficionados, somehow endures. As they say in the American South, bless their hearts.

This week is full of news from the Alpine region because a ceasefire in the Middle East has revealed Europe's security dilemma. It turns out these post-imperial societies may no longer have emperors but without the American empire, they are naked. America is not needed until it is.

Meanwhile Trump wants to reduce US troop numbers in Germany, Politico reports. Or as Politico's Brussels Playbook put it thus: "drawing down American troops could cost billions, take years and undermine Washington’s own interests, EU lawmakers warn." Yet according to a separate Politico headline, the news "shocks Pentagon" as "stunned defense officials" were, per standard operating procedure at this point in our reality TV white nationalist presidency, left "to figure out if the president was serious".

This is not how to govern, it's barely fodder for "Real Housewives". Someone throw a cold drink! There is nothing quite like a fight with the Pentagon engaged, as the inertia of the bureaucracy is stronger than any one fickle character easily distracted by the chimera of the news cycle. Further, everyone can thank Ben Wittes of Brookings for pointing me to a video of every "Real Housewives" tagline ever. What is yours? I might not be a Washington insider but what is stopping me from playing one in my own newsletter? And so can you!

Yet TACOs, drinks and housewives aside, again we can observe who has failed to understand that 80 years of transatlantic bonds are greater than one buffoon with his ballrooms and big bombs. Former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer writes in Le Monde today that "the dissolution of NATO has already begun".

Yes, but no and I beg to differ. NATO for now remains an alliance dependent on the American military. But only the shock of the summer holidays being on hiatus due to a fuel crisis could Europeans be forced from the beach into hard choices and contemplating their own security in the long hot summer ahead. It is as if the frivolous caprices of a deeply unserious presidency has forced a world of unintended consequences.

If you come from Chicago—or you fought in Afghanistan—you know summer is the shooting season. Expect many shots to be fired in the months ahead. If you are a betting person, you might turn to Polymarket, where one can place bets on crises. It turns out, "Half of 'long shot' Polymarket bets on military action are successful," The Financial Times reports. Stateside, the first insider trading indictment came down against a US soldier involved in the raid that sealed former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's fate late last week.

As I articulated in a LinkedIn post about future scenario planning, expect the unexpected. Do not be surprised if David beats Goliath and things become even more unpredictable yet. However, anyone betting against NATO is betting on the wrong horse. Blood, after all, is thicker than water and fuel gets spent so fast.

Welcome to the new Alpine Security Monitor! You can subscribe (and become a paid subscriber!) for weekly updates on security and geopolitics as it concerns the Alpine region, namely Austria, Czechia, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia and Switzerland (ok, little Liechtenstein and Monaco too when merited). If this was forwarded to you, welcome! Questions, complaints, musings, lucrative offers, misguided rants and related ephemera can all be addressed to the management, amanda.rivkin@securitydialogue.org. Now let's get to the week's news from around the Alpine region.

MUNICH, GERMANY & VERSAILLES, FRANCE – KNDS launches probe into Qatar deal

The Financial Times reports Wednesday that "Franco-German tank maker KNDS," manufacturer of the Leopard tanks, "has ordered an independent probe into bribery allegations related to a 2013 deal with Qatar's armed forces".
The news is "a blow to the company ahead of a planned stock market listing." An external legal firm has been hired to scrutinize the 2013 deal "over alleged multimillion-euro payments to intermediaries linked to Qatari officials."
KNDS is planning an IPO that could value the company at €20 billion ($23.5 billion).

PARIS, FRANCE – France issues travel warning urging its citizens to leave Mali

The BBC reports Wednesday that the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs "has urged its citizens to leave Mali 'as soon as possible', after a weekend of co-ordinated attacks by separatist fighters and Islamist militants."
The update issued Wednesday "also warned French citizens not to travel to the West African nation, describing the situation as 'extremely volatile'."
On Saturday, "Explosions and sustained gunfire were reported across the country, including the capital Bamako". A suicide bomber took out Defense Minister Sadio Camara in Kati and in the north of the country, "separatist forces" took control of the city of Kidal. The leader of the country's military junta Assim Goïta nonetheless described the security situation as "under control".

PARIS, FRANCE – Lafarge appeals terrorism financing conviction

Swissinfo reports Tuesday that "Cement manufacturer Lafarge, owned by Swiss giant Holcim, and all eight other defendants, including its former CEO Bruno Lafont, have appealed their convictions for financing terrorism in Syria in 2013 and 2014."
All nine individuals were "found guilty on April 13 by the Paris Criminal Court of having paid nearly €5.6 million", or $6.54 million, "to armed jihadist groups in 2013 and 2014 in order to keep a cement plant operating in Jalabiya, in northern Syria."
According to the lower court's judgement, Lafarge was "prepared to make any compromise with terrorist organizations". The company was ordered to pay €1.125 million ($1.31 million) and a customs fine of €4.57 million ($5.34 million) "for failing to comply with international sanctions."

PARIS, FRANCE – Probe of website that enabled mass rape of Gisèle Pelicot opened

Agence France Presse reports Wednesday that authorities in France have opened a probe into the reappearance of the Coco platform where Dominique Pelicot, the former husband of Gisèle Pelicot, was able to solicit men to rape his wife while she lay unconscious after having been drugged by him.
Authorities in France say the platform has been linked to numerous crimes, "including the sexual abuse of children, rape and murder." The website was registered abroad and previously shuttered in 2024 and reopened under a new name. It was still accessible as of earlier this week, the French news agency reports.
Before the platform reemerged, the investigation into the site was "well advanced". In January 2025, the founder and manager of the site, Isaac Steidl, was charged "with complicity in drug trafficking, possession and distribution of child pornography, corruption of a minor via the internet, and criminal conspiracy"—all charges he denies.

SAINT-QUIRIN, FRANCE – Body of woman found 21 years ago identified, arrest made

The BBC reports Tuesday that "A woman whose body was discovered in France more than 20 years ago has been identified by police, and a suspect in her murder arrested."
The woman, Hakima Boukerouis, "is the fifth woman to be named through an international police campaign called Operation Identify Me," launched in 2023. Boukerouis' "mutilated body" was found "in a concealed water butt" in the town of Saint-Quirin in northeastern France in January 2005. The case is also the first time Operation Identify Me has led to a suspect in the murder being identified and arrested. Forty-two other women found dead across Europe have yet to be identified as part of the operation; previously, a British citizen murdered in Belgium, Paraguayan and Russian citizens found dead in Spain and a German citizen found dead on a Dutch beach were all successfully identified.
Interpol said French police were able to identify Boukerouis with "familial DNA searching". Previously, Boukerouis was known to police only as "the woman with the Richmond dental crown" due to the "type of recent expensive dental work she had," which police believe was done in Germany. The suspect in her murder was not identified as "investigations and judicial proceedings were ongoing."

KARLSRUHE, GERMANY – Kazakh citizen accused of spying for Russia detained

The Insider reports Wednesday a citizen of Kazakhstan named only as Sergei K., according to strict German privacy law, was detained Tuesday "on suspicion of spying for Russia," according to an announcement from the Federal Prosecutor's Office.
Law enforcement officers also conducted searches on "the premises of the accused and a person who was not suspected of the crime."
The arrest warrant alleges Sergei K. "is suspected of passing information to a senior intelligence officer in Moscow" who he had been in contact with "since at least May 2025." He allegedly passed on information about "Germany's military support for Ukraine and on the German arms and defense industry—especially on companies that develop drones and robots." Additionally, he "repeatedly forwarded photos of public buildings in Berlin or of military convoys on highways, including the convoy of a NATO state." He also "informed his contact at the secret service about suitable sabotage objects in Germany and offered to recruit more people".

KÖLN, GERMANY – Government suspects Russia behind Signal phishing attack

Reuters reports Saturday "The German government believes that Russia could be responsible for phishing attacks targeting high profile politicians, diplomats, military officers and journalists".
The domestic intelligence service known by its German initials BfV and its cybersecurity division "warned this year of attacks on users of messaging apps, likely carried out by a state-sponsored actor."
The phishing attacks against government users of the Signal app is something the BfV is investigating "since mid-April".

ERFURT, GERMANY – Far-right AfD polling at 28% according to new INSA survey

Reuters reports Saturday that far-right Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) "rose to a record 28% in the latest weekly voting intention poll".
The AfD is "widening its lead" over the party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) by four percent. CDU support remains unchanged at 24% from the previous week.
As coalition formation is essential to governance in Germany and the other parties continue to rule out cooperation with AfD, "viable governing coalitions would be limited to three-party alliances," forcing CDU to maintain alliances with the Greens and either the more left-leaning Social Democrats (SPD) or the Left Party (Die Linke).

VIENNA, AUSTRIA – Man pleads guilty to plotting attack on Taylor Swift concert

The BBC reports Tuesday that a 21 year old Austrian man identified only as Beran A. pleaded guilty in court the day his trial opened to plotting a terrorist attack on a Taylor Swift concert in the summer of 2024.
The state prosecutor said a nearly completed bomb was uncovered when police searched the man's house. Beran A. admitted to belonging to a terrorist organization but "denied other charges including involvement in planning an attack in the Islamic holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia." A second suspect, Arda K., 21, also "went on trial" and "is accused of being part of an Islamic State cell with him." In addition to the purported Mecca attack, the duo are accused of also "planning attacks in Istanbul and Dubai". They were arrested following "a tip-off from the CIA".
All three sold out Taylor Swift concerts that were set to take place at Vienna's Ernst Happl stadium were cancelled, leaving 195,000 fans stranded who "roamed the streets of the city, singing and exchanging Taylor Swift-themed friendship bracelets."

ROME, ITALY – Italy has enough jetfuel to keep airports operating through at least May

Reuters reports Wednesday that Italian Transportation Minister Matteo Salvini acknowledged "Italy's jet fuel reserves are enough to cover airport operations at least until the end of May".
Salvini urged the EU "to loosen its budget rules to let governments respond to the energy crisis." Imports of jet fuel to Europe have experienced significant disruption since the US and Israeli war against Iran began in late February.
The concerns about "a supply crunch" ahead of the peak summer travel season could force Europe to actually get serious about its security given how highly unlikely anything less than a threat to the Europeans' summer holiday in the south of Europe could force such a reckoning.

ROME, ITALY – 'Bunga bunga' back in headlines as 'Berlusconi showgirl' pardoned

Reuters reports Tuesday that Italy's notoriously independent judiciary has "opened urgent checks into whether Nicole Minetti, an ally of late Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, lied to secure a presidential pardon for a conviction over a sex-party scandal."
President Sergio Mattarella and the Italian Department of Justice have been left "embarrassed" but only as questions have been raised "over how authorities checked the humanitarian claims behind the clemency award, which was initially kept secret." Minetti herself "has denied falsifying her application, but Mattarella has taken the highly unusual step of urging the ministry to review the case after a newspaper questioned key parts of her appeal."
Minetti is "a former dental hygenist and showgirl" who "was sentenced to two years and 10 months in jail in 2019 for procuring sex workers for Berlusconi's raunchy 'bunga bunga' parties." In 2021, she was given "an additional 13-month sentence for misuse of public funds."

MILAN, ITALY – Chinese national extradited to the US for pandemic era cyber attack

Cyberscoop reports Monday that Xu Zewei, 34, a Chinese national, was extradited to the US following his arrest last July in Milan at the behest of American authorities for his alleged involvement "in a massive, pandemic-era attack spree that compromised nearly 13,000 U.S. organizations".
The US Department of Justice formally charged Xu in court Monday for "exploiting a string of zero-day vulnerabilities in Microsoft Exchange Server to steal research on COVID-19 vaccines, treatment and testing during the initial wave and subsequent height of the pandemic."
Xu was allegedly directed by Chinese intelligence as "part of a broader espionage campaign" that "targeted infectious disease experts, law firms, universities, defense contractors and policy think tanks," according to the indictment in a series of incidents widely known as Silk Typhoon.

MILAN & ROME, ITALY – Hateful incidents mar Liberation Day parades

The Jerusalem Post reports Thursday that "On April 25 in Milan, the annual march marking Italy's liberation from Nazi-fascism unfolded along familiar lines: partisan songs, flags and a civic ritual rooted in the memory of resistance", that is until "the Jewish Brigade contingent entered the procession—joined by Jewish groups and pro-dialogue movements".
According to the account, the Jewish and interfaith groups supporting the Jewish Brigade were "met with escalating hostility from other demonstrators". In other words, "Insults were shouted, chants intensified, and tensions moved from verbal confrontation towards physical threat." Insults allegedly included such brave and courageous taunts as "assassins," "genocidal pigs," and "you should have been soap," which is of course "a phrase invoking Holocaust imagery."
The result in situ: "Police intervened, and the Jewish Brigade was eventually escorted out of the march." And for the national conversation: "a national argument over who belongs inside Italy's Liberation Day memory". And a further incident when "Italian police arrested a 21-year-old man identified in Italian reports as Eitan Bondi" who is allegedly responsible for "shooting two members of the National Association for Italian Partisans" in Rome during Liberation Day events there. Bondi is "described as a member of Rome's Jewish community" who "allegedly admitted firing an air or pellet gun".

PRAGUE, CZECHIA – President Pavel acknowledges failure to meet NATO commitments

Radio Prague International reports Monday that Czech President Petr Pavel acknowledged "Czechia is not meeting the defence spending it committed to" with NATO nor is the country meeting its military capacity obligations "promised to ensure for collective defence."
Pavel, a former Chariman of NATO's Military Committee, also acknowledged that "If all NATO members behaved this way, its collective defence would become ineffective". Pavel believes "sufficient defence strength is the best way to prevent possible aggression by a foreign state." Amen.
On Sunday, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš "will not meet this year's commitment to spend two percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defence." Pavel said Czechia "is fulfilling only about 50 percent of the promised defence capabilities for NATO."

BERN, SWITZERLAND – Italy signals grave displeasure over New Year's tragedy

Swissinfo reports Tuesday that Italian Ambassador Gian Lorenzo Cornado lashed out at Switzerland over exorbitant hospital bills sent to survivors of a New Years' Eve bar fire in Crans-Montana that made international headlines and severely damaged bilateral relations after 41 mostly young people were killed and 115 more were left with life-changing injuries in a case where Swiss corruption had real life consequences for innocents. Italy is also now a plaintiff in a case against Switzerland over the incident, Reuters reports, "which would put Italy in line to receive financial compensation".
Ambassador Cornado said his country "would never pay bills" nor "will the families, of course" for the tragedy whereas Italy "will pay the bill for the two Swiss hospitalised at the Niguarda," a hospital in Milan, "because Italy saves lives free of charge". Last Friday, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said it was "despicable" that the Swiss health care system sought to profit from the tragedy and "the Swiss canton of Valais", where Crans-Montana is located—and that is somewhat notorious domestically within Switzerland for elite cronyism, known locally as "amigo culture"—"said it would waive bills for Italian patients hospitalised in its hospitals."
According to the Italian ambassador, "The bill for the hospitalisation of four young Italians in Sion 'for a single day' amounts to more than CHF120,000" (€130,000 or $152,000). He said Switzerland should pay this as it bears "overwhelming moral responsibility" and cited article 35 of European regulation 883 of 2004 as the mechanism "that would allow the two countries to waive each other's claims for reimbursement".

BERN, SWITZERLAND – Swiss Parliament rejects recognizing a Palestinian state

Swissinfo reports Tuesday that "A Swiss parliamentary chamber has rejected an attempt to force Switzerland to recognise the state of Palestine."
The House of Representatives rejected recognition by an overwhelming majority of 116 to 66 with 11 abstentions. The lower chamber followed the Senate in making the same recognition on the condition that "the conditions for recognition are not met", citing the fact that "an independent and operational government is lacking".
Further, the famous Swiss neutrality comes to play as "recognition would be contrary to neutrality and would deprive Switzerland of acting as a mediator for a solution to the conflict", thereby disabusing the country of its pretention that great powers believe in its ability to be a "neutral" mediator when nations like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and others are doing this duty in present circumstances.

BELLINZONA, SWITZERLAND – Daughter of ex-Uzbekh president on trial in absentia

The AP reports Monday that Gulnara Karimova, once the glamorous first daughter of Uzbekhistan who dabbled in everything from telecoms to pop music where she was known by her stage name "Googoosha," went on trial Monday in absentia in the southeastern Swiss city of Bellinzona for money laundering and bribery "involving assets worth hundreds of millions of dollars".
Currently behind bars in Uzebkhistan, the daughter of late former Uzbek President Islam Karimov "developed and ran a crime ring known as 'The Office' that involved several dozen people and multiple companies." She stands accused in Switzerland "of depositing hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of funds 'of criminal origin' in Switzerland and abroad, and arranging for safe deposit boxes for the deposit of cash, jewelry and other valuables of criminal origin".
One of her defense lawyers, Grégoire Mangeat, said Karimova is "being prevented from leaving the 'prison colony' where she has been detained in Uzbekhistan". Prosecutors in Switzerland also indicted private bank Lombard Odier and a former employee of the bank in November 2024 for having a "decisive role in concealing the proceeds of the criminal activities of 'The Office.'" The original "family office"?

ZÜRICH, SWITZERLAND – 10 Nigerians arrested over 'romance scam'

Swissinfo reports Tuesday that 10 Nigerians were arrested by authorities in Zürich and searches were conducted of homes in six cantons "Following an extensive investigation into a Nigerian romance scam".
The public prosecutor's office and Zürich cantonal police are involved in the proceedings "directed against a group of Nigerians." The suspects range in age from 32 to 54 years old and "are accused of serious money laundering, romance scams and other cyber offences with losses running into the millions."
Europol is also cooperating in the investigation, suggesting the case extends beyond the borders of Switzerland and possibly into other countries.

VADUZ, LIECHTENSTEIN – Former Swiss Army chief joins board of private bank

Finews reports Tuesday that "Thomas Süssli, former head of the Swiss Armed Forces, is joining the board of directors of Kaiser Partner Privatbank", a Liechtenstein-based private bank where he will bring "expertise in geopolitics, cybersecurity, and digitalization."
Süssli was head of the armed forces in Switzerland from 2020 to 2025 before retiring his command late last year. Süssli will also advise business units within the Vaduz-based Fritz Kaiser Group, which "includes companies in the areas of trust services, family office, and real estate."
Liechtenstein's Financial Market Authority must approve the appointment for it to be official, though given the public announcement, this suggests that approval is pending and more of a formal hurdle than anything.

And finally…

NAPLES, ITALY – AI reconstructs face of man killed in Pompeii as Mount Vesuvius erupted

The AP reports Monday that "Archeologists and researchers at the ancient Roman site of Pompeii have used artificial intelligence for the first time to digitally reconstruct the face of a man killed in the AD 79 eruption of Mount Vesuvius that smothered the city".
"The reconstruction was developed by the Pompeii Archeological Park," and "in collaboration with the University of Padua". The project is "based on archeological survey data from excavations near the Porta Stabia necropolis". Though clearly fodder for a future National Geographic special of some kind, elements do admittedly sound borderline if not full on kitsch in that the man "is shown running along a rough, debris-covered road, holding a large, shallow bowl over his head and using it as a shield while Mount Vesuvius is seen erupting in the background."
The use of AI to make history come alive for a new generation shows that archeological research can be made "more accessible and emotionally engaging for the public while maintaining a scientific foundation".

Und…

HURGHADA, EGYPT – German tourist dies of snake bite after watching spectacle

Agence France Presse reports Monday that a German tourist in the Egyptian beach resort town of Hurghada has died after watching a "snake charming show when" a "reptile crawled into his trousers" and "bit him as he watched a show in Egypt on a family holiday," police in Germany said.
While Egyptian authorities seemed unaware of the incident, the 57 year old "was watching the snake-charming show at a hotel in Hurghada" when "The two snakes involved, thought to be cobras, were draped over the necks of the audience members, police in southern Bavaria state said" in a statement which noted the snake-charmer "then let one of the snakes crawl into the trousers" at which point "it bit him in the leg".
The victim had "clear signs of poisoning" and needed "to be resuscitated before being taken to the hospital, where he later died". Bavarian police said the man was from Unterallgäu and was with two family members on holiday. Police and prosecutors are investigating "and are awaiting results of a toxicology test."

Stay safe and keep searching high and low for that "true socialism"!

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