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Qatar scraps contract with Italy after Iran attacks gas plant, French Foreign Minister Barrot tries to broker Middle East talks and a French soldier is killed in northern Iraq

Qatar scraps contract with Italy after Iran attacks gas plant, French Foreign Minister Barrot tries to broker Middle East talks and a French soldier is killed in northern Iraq

It was a little over nine years ago in early 2017 that I was covering former US President Barack Obama's farewell address at Chicago's McCormick Place when he uttered the words that stayed with me and linger heavily over this last week: "Reality has a funny way of catching up to you." 

In between then and now, we have watched as an American President has tipped the world casually towards something like Armaggedon. The European nations have reacted understandably frustrated to being excluded from the decision making process and even having their sovereignty attacked, as in the case of Denmark with regards to Greenland. European countries are now refusing to aid in opening the Strait of Hormuz, or as German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius put it according to The Guardian, "This is not our war, we have not started it. What does Donald Trump expect from a handful of European frigates in the strait of Hormuz that the mighty US Navy cannot manage alone?"

And therein lies a bit of the contradiction of the responsibility for defense and in turn power we Europeans find ourselves in (yes, I am a dual citizen). The Financial Times reported Thursday that Denmark was ready to blow up runways in Greenland and rushed blood supplies in the event of a US attack which never came—or has not come yet, one can never be too certain in matters of national sovereignty in this day and age. However, despite the game of high stakes chicken Trump often engages in, Europeans will be impressed with how fast they forgive the Americans their indiscretions whenever the next time that muscle is needed on this continent and the US steps up where no one else will or is capable.

But yet, this is not how Switzerland's pro-Russian press sees things. Rather the idea of arming for national defense is unnecessary because luck will hold eternal. More bizarrely, one outlet suggested that a state does not need an army and to suggest a country without an army is not really a country is to deny countries like Panama or Costa Rica, which do not have an army, a right to exist. My dear Swiss, the first priority of any state is to protect itself, everything else, all the privileges and riches, the endless neutrality discourse, are all nice-to-haves. 

A similar line comes most bizarrely from Foreign Affairs this week in an article entitled, "Europe Cannot Be a Military Power". The argumentation here is Europe has and should continue to focus on economic integration and defense is better left to the other side of the Atlantic or else Europe will spiral into rivalries among nations. Any European worth their salt should correctly posit, in these times? There is however absolutely truth to this idea that as European nations spend enormous amounts on arming themselves, the democracies on this side of the Atlantic could ultimately prove more fragile than the American experiment has. Far-right, ultra nationalist governments could inherit enormous stockpiles and little alternative in a competition of rigid populist dogmas but to do battle with one another.

So in these heady, perilous times, some words of wisdom. First, trust but verify—an adage that comes from the adversary Russia which was adopted by former US President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. Second, if you want peace, prepare for war. French President Emmanuel Macron said much the same a few weeks back when he advised that in order to be free, one must be feared and to be feared one must be powerful. Third, take responsibility for the moment. Voters in my home state of Illinois this past Tuesday took this to heart as Axios notes in a headline, "The 'Squad' left faces complete wipeout in Illinois Democratic primaries". Theatrics and self-serving publicity are barely a paper tiger, but rather a joke on the back of the injustices others face. Finally, to return to where I started, reality has a funny way of catching up to you.

Welcome to the new Alpine Security Monitor! You can subscribe (and become a paid subscriber!) for weekly updates on security and geopolitics as it concerns the Alpine region, namely Austria, Czechia, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia and Switzerland (ok, little Liechtenstein and Monaco too when merited). If this was forwarded to you, welcome! Questions, complaints, musings, lucrative offers, misguided rants and related ephemera can all be addressed to the management, amanda.rivkin@securitydialogue.org. Now let's get to the week's news from around the Alpine region.

 

DOHA, QATAR – Qatar scraps contract with Italy after Iran Ras Laffan missile attack

  • Politico reports Thursday that "Europe's insistence that it doesn't face an energy supply crisis took a blow Thursday when Qatar warned it would have to scrap contracts with Italy and Belgium" after Iranian ballistic missiles hit the Ras Laffan gas plant on Wednesday.
  • On Thursday, QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said "it would have to cancel long-term liquified natural gas supply contracts for up to five years" as that is how long it will take to repair the damage from the Iranian strike.
  • In addition to Italy and Belgium, contracts with South Korea and China are expected to be impacted. Al-Kaabi said that Qatar "would have to declare force majeure" on these long-term contracts.

 

JERUSALEM, ISRAEL – French Foreign Minister Barrot on unscheduled visit to Middle East

  • Reuters reports Thursday that French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot is traveling to Israel today on "an unscheduled visit" following a trip to Beirut Thursday to meet with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in order to "discuss with Israeli authorities regional security and humanitarian aid issues and attempts to de-escalate the conflicts in the Middle East."
  • So far Israel has "rebuffed an offer of direct talks with Beirut as too little, too late". France backs Israel's "goal of wanting Iran-backed Hizbullah disarmed but fears that acting against it could risk civil war".
  • Aoun "has expressed a willingness to begin direct negotiations with Israel".

 

ERBIL, IRAQ – French soldier killed, six other injured during counter-terror mission

  • Radio France International reports last Friday that Chief Warrant Officer Arnaud Frion and six other French soldiers were injured during an attack in the Erbil region of northern Iraq while deployed "as part of a counter-terrorism operation".
  • France currently has "hundreds of troops based in the Erbil region as part of a broader international coalition to fight Islamic State militants in the area." Frion's unit had been deployed since January 24 as part of the mission which dates back to 2015.
  • On X, French President Emmanuel Macron wrote that Frion "died for France". While Macron did not specify who was behind the attack, Frion was killed by an Iranian Shahed drone and "Earlier, a pro-Iranian Iraqi group," Ashab Alkahf, "warned that French interests in the region were now targets" following "the arrival of the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier in the eastern Mediterranean."

 

ERBIL, IRAQ – Italy announces withdrawal of forces from Iraqi Kurdistan

  • The Wall Street Journal reports last Friday that "Italy is pulling its troops out of Iraq's semiautonomous region" and Erbil's Camp Singara due to fall out from the US and Israeli war against Iran.
  • Prior to the start of the conflict, Italy had 300 troops stationed at Camp Singara, but 100 have returned to Italy while another 70 are currently stationed in Jordan. Around 140 troops remain in Erbil. A drone hit Camp Singara in the early hours last Thursday and while "None of the troops were injured in that attack" the need to withdraw forces became more urgent in the aftermath of that strike.
  • Italy has also pulled "smaller military units from Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain".

 

MEDITERRANEAN BETWEEN MALTA AND ITALY – Russian LNG tanker adrift poses risks

  • Reuters reports Monday that "Italy, France and seven other nations told the European Commission that a Russian liquified natural gas tanker" that is part of the country's shadow fleet, the Arctic Metagaz, is "adrift in the Mediterranean" between Malta and Italy and "represents an ecological threat".
  • Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has "acknowledged that the vessel was adrift in the Mediterranean" however in typical uncooperative fashion has said that only "concrete circumstances" would permit the country to resolve the issue. The foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a statement posted online that the ministry was in touch with the owner of the tanker as well as "competent bodies" and that while the ship "had no crew," the Arctic Metagaz "was carrying 700 metric tons of different types of fuel" as well as "a substantial amount of natural gas". Earlier this month, Russia said the ship had been attacked from the Libyan coast by Ukrainian naval drones and Libya's maritime agency said the vessel sank, which is clearly not the case.
  • As the ship is part of the shadow fleet "intended to circumvent sanctions imposed in connection with Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine", it is likely yet another form of intended blackmail by the Russians to leave it looming over the Mediterranean's biodiversity, ecosystem and pristine beaches which are so essential for tourism and therefore the economy.

 

THE HAGUE, NETHERLANDS – Germany withdraws support for Israael at UN court

  • The Jewish News Syndicate reports Thursday that Germany has pulled its support for Israel "in a genocide case that South Africa brought" against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the principal court of the UN, "as Berlin faces its own charge before the court for aiding Israel."
  • In early 2024, Germany agreed to "file a third-party intervention in South Africa's case against Israel in the wake of the Hamas-led Oct. 7 terror attacks" as Berlin said it supported Israel's right to self-defense and decried South Africa's claims as "baseless" and a "political instrumentalization" of the Genocide Convention.
  • German officials said it is withdrawing its support "as Berlin defends itself in a separate case that Nicaragua brought" which "alleges that Germany is violating international law, including the Genocide Convention, by supporting Israel politically, financially and militarily". Germany argues the ICJ "cannot logically make a determination on its actions until it decides the case against Israel" and that "intervention on behalf of Israel could serve to undermine Germany's reasoning."

 

INDRE, FRANCE – Macron announces 'France Libre' as name of new aircraft carrier

  • Reuters reports Wednesday that French President Emmanuel Macron announced the name of France's new aircraft carrier France Libre will honor the French Resistance during World War II while on a visit to the town of Indre in western France where the new ship is under construction.
  • State-owned shipyard Naval Group is responsible for the construction of France Libre which will be operational by 2038. As the EU's only nuclear power, France is one of the few European powers with an aircraft carrier in its fleet.
  • The current aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, is expected to be retired the same year. In addition to fighter jets, it is expected France Libre will integrate drone technology.

 

LONGUENESSE; FRANCE – Two brothers sympathetic to ISIS detained over antisemitic plot

  • Le Monde reports Sunday that two brothers in their early twenties of dual Italian and Moroccan nationality, identified only as Elyasse H. and Moad H., "were arrested while in a car near a prison in the northern town of Longuenesse after the report of a drone flying over the jail" when authorities located inside their vehicle "a semi-automatic weapon, a bottle of hydrochloric acid, aluminum foil and a flag of the Islamic State jihadist group stretched across the headrest of the driver's seat."
  • France's anti-terror national prosecutor's office, known by the acronym PNAT, said the duo were taken into custody a week ago last Tuesday and that "While in police custody, the brothers admitted that 'they had been planning a terror attack in France for which they aspired to martyrdom". Both had been radicalized and exposed to jihadist propaganda over the last two years and said they were intent on carrying out acts of terror in France due to their inability to travel to Syria or Palestine. Moad H. had also made a martyrdom video earlier this month where he pledged allegiance to the so-called Islamic State.
  • On Sunday, authorities opened an investigation "into criminal conspiracy to commit terrorism, as well as the acquisition and carrying of weapons." Prosecutors recommended charges and remanding the two to custody.

 

LJUBLJANA, SLOVENIA – Israel's Black Cube implicated in election interference

  • Politico reports Thursday that Slovenian law enforcement say a private jet belonging to operatives of the Israeli intelligence company Black Cube including the firm's CEO Dan Zorella, the former head of Israel's National Security Council Giora Eiland and two others flew to Slovenia last winter on a "covert surveillance and wiretapping" mission to bring down the government of Prime Minister Robert Golob.
  • The Black Cube operatives are now accused "of helping to leak recordings designed to undermine Prime Minister Robert Golob's government by linking it to corruption, days before a knife-edge election." Recordings "show prominent Slovenian figures apparently discussing corruption, illegal lobbying and the misuse of state funds." Slovenian National and International Security State Secretary Vojko Volk said Black Cube operatives visited Slovenia four times at a Wednesday afternoon press conference.
  • Golob is facing off against "right-wing populist Janez Janša", who Golob says "would threaten the fabric of the EU." Janša "depicts Golob as a corrupt former energy tycoon."

 

BERN, SWITZERLAND – Swiss permit three US military overflights while denying two more

  • Reuters reports Saturday the Swiss government announced three US military flights were permitted to fly over Swiss territory and two other flights were denied after discussions with American counterparts.
  • Citing the country's "law of neutrality", Switzerland "prohibits overflights by parties to the conflict that serve a military purpose related to the conflict" whereas "humanitarian and medical transits, including the transport of wounded persons, as well as overflights that are unrelated to the conflict" are permitted.
  • The three approved requests involved "transportation and one maintenance aircraft." Switzerland said it would reject "future requests for overflights" should "they exceed normal traffic, and if the purpose of these overflights cannot be determined."

 

BERN, SWITZERLAND – Swiss police launch manhunt over last fall's antisemitic riot

  • Keystone-SDA reports Monday that "The Bern cantonal police have identified 101 suspected criminals following the escalated pro-Palestine demonstrationlast October" and are hoping "to find more people by means of a public manhunt."
  • Using "photos and video recordings to create chains of evidence", the Bern cantonal police have "identified numerous people who committed crimes while wearing masks" who "whill be contacted in the coming weeks and some will be called in for questioning." They "also identified several dozen as yet unknown persons who committed criminal offenses." The prosecutor's office has "ordered a three-stage public search" and are planning "to post undercover pictures of the wanted persons on their website" today.
  • The riot last October, shortly after the ceasefire in Gaza began, cost the city of Bern over 600,000 Swiss francs in damages.

 

BERN, SWITZERLAND – Parliament votes down further defining neutrality in Constitution

  • Swissinfo reports Thursday that "Swiss neutrality will not be defined further in the Constitution" as both parliamentary chambers "accepted a proposal to turn down a direct counter-proposal to the so-called neutrality initiative."
  • The far-right Swiss People's Party (SVP), the largest party in the parliament, had sought to enshrine "perpetual and armed neutrality" in the country's Constitution in an effort to ensure "Switzerland not join any military or defence alliance, nor adopt economic or diplomatic sanctions against a belligerent state".
  • Both chambers of the Parliament were opposed but the Senate wanted a counter-proposal due to efforts of SVP and the Center Party. Now that this has failed, the initiative and ongoing endless naval-gazing discussions about what neutrality means to various factions of Swiss society can go on unabated in lieu of serious conversations about security policy that rise above precious feelings. Enjoy until a real crisis when the adults will get together and make hard choices anyhow!

 

PRAGUE, CZECHIA – Czech government concludes repatriation flights from the Middle East

  • Radio Prague International reports last Friday that the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the last "repatriation flight from the Middle East for people whose return home was complicated by the war involving Iran" occurred last Thursday.
  • Over 1,500 Czech nationals "returned from areas affected by the conflict on these flights," the Czech Foreign Ministry announced on X.
  • The Ministry also said that no more Czech citizens are "in an urgent situation in the area" but that "representative offices in the region are prepared to assist, in the event of an acute need in the future".

 

Stay safe and reality has a funny way of catching up with you!

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