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Putin wants Schröder as Europe's Ukraine negotiator, AfD politicians will attend St. Petersburg forum and German political, intel leaders clash over Iran hybrid threat

Putin wants Schröder as Europe's Ukraine negotiator, AfD politicians will attend St. Petersburg forum and German political, intel leaders clash over Iran hybrid threat

Good afternoon in Europe and good morning in America. Despite the finest efforts of the German-speaking media and assorted security commentators to whip up a narrative about an attack on the Estonian border town of Narva presenting the most realistic scenario to the NATO alliance, it seems the far more realistic probe for those of us who know the region well of an attack on the eastern-most region of Latvia, Latgale occurred this week.

Let's unpack what happened as the security of Europe as a whole is concerned. Against the backdrop of Russia's fatigue with the war in Ukraine and a "special military operation" that has now outlasted Russian participation in the Second World War, known as the Great Patriotic War there, informed analysts acknowledge NATO's European member states need until 2030 at least to be ready militarily. The window of opportunity for Russia is therefore now until then.

The 45 minute-long Victory Day parade on Red Square showcased no military hardware. Further in the days after, Putin intimated the war in Ukraine may be winding down. However, overnight Ukraine was clobbered with drones and missiles suggesting nothing of the sort. 

Enter an incident discussed last week in the intro to this monitor, where a drone, Ukrainian in origin that was sent to attack Russia, was successfully diverted by Russia using electronic warfare. Instead of striking inside Russia, it collided with a thankfully empty gas storage facility in Rezekne, Latvia, which happens to be the town where my paternal grandparents married. As one who has traveled to the region and knows it quite well dating back to my first trip to the region in 2015, the year after Russia invaded Ukraine, it was always here and not Narva where the Baltics are most vulnerable for reasons of the terrain, both physical and human. A sympathetic local Russian population, an acute alcoholism problem especially among many of the men and no natural boundaries all present ideal terrain for an invader from the east.

The initial situation in the aftermath of this attack was confusing but also very scary for the locals. "You know Latvia is so small that I am so scared," one friend from Rezekne said in a voice message the next morning. Given the abysmal lack of information coming out before and after the strike, she later added that there is "no sense of security whatsoever," and "no sense that our army can do anything even with NATO. It's just surreal." Fast forward one week later and the Prime Minister, Evika Silina, resigned just days after asking the former defense minister to do the same. The National Review offers a very good summary of the events and offers evidence that at least among the old citadel of Reaganite conservatives, there are still a few cold warriors or some individuals informed like one kicking around Washington.

So here we are. Russian electronic warfare has successfully diverted a Ukrainian drone which struck inside a NATO member state resulting in the toppling of the government in a country with a rather weak state. My friend is right to ask where is NATO but we should also all be asking ourselves as well. Switzerland and Austria might not belong to the club that would at least have Switzerland as a member (Austria being perceived as a sieve for the Russian state, there is greater reluctance) but both rely on the alliance to keep the peace in the region. Perhaps it is time to ask not what NATO can do for us but what we can do for NATO? Given the dearth of serious alternatives (PESCO anyone?), you can either buttress what exists and was effective for more than 75 years until most recently or wait around for "strategic autonomy" to deliver. 

Welcome to the Alpine Security Monitor, an official publication of the Bern Security Dialogue. We urge you to subscribe (and become a paid subscriber!) for weekly updates on security and geopolitics as it concerns the Alpine region, namely Austria, Czechia, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia and Switzerland (ok, little Liechtenstein and Monaco too when merited). If you have enjoyed what you have been reading for free, consider upgrading now to become a member or a warrior to support the critical work we do to elevate security policy in this critical region at the heart of Europe. Our work and success very much depends on our network. If this was forwarded to you, welcome! You can address any comments or concerns to our inbox and the person responsible at amanda.rivkin@securitydialogue.org.

MOSCOW, RUSSIA – Putin says wants former German Chancellor to negotiate end to war

  • The Guardian reports Sunday that Russian leader Vladimir Putin said he is "willing to negotiate new security arrangements for Europe and that his preferred negotiating partner would be Germany's former chancellor Gerhard Schröder—a choice unlikely to be accepted in Ukraine and the EU."
  • Over the weekend, long-time Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said negotiating the end of the war "would take a long time". Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said negotiations will "probably resume", though it is unclear when that will be. On Thursday he told Russian media "that Moscow saw no basis for a new round of trilateral talks with Ukraine and the US until Ukrainian forces withdrew from the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine—a condition Kyiv rejected."
  • On Saturday, there was "heavy security" in Moscow for the annual Victory Day parade on Red Square, "with internet services switched off" and an absence of missiles and tanks and other military hardware as "Ukraine continued to rattle Russia with long-range drone and missile strikes".

 

MOSCOW, RUSSIA – AfD parliamentarians invited, two will attend economic forum

  • Politico reports Wednesday that "An advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin has invited politicians from the Alternativ for Germany (AfD) party to an economic forum in June".
  • Two AfD parliamentarians, Markus Frohnmaier and Steffan Kotré, will be in attendance.
  • The letters of invitation were signed by Anton Kobyakov, an advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

 

BERLIN, GERMANY – German political leaders and intel chiefs clash over Iran hybrid threat

  • The New York Times reports last Friday that "Intelligents agents have privately warned of the potential of hybrid attacks from Iran-linked groups" while "political leaders, including Chancellor Friedrich Merz, have publicly played down the risk."
  • The clash stems from an internal debate "over how bluntly to warn the public about the rising risk of Iran-sponsored attacks on German soil." While both Merz and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt "have publicly acknowledged Iranian threats linked to the war against Iran", both "have played down their severity, casting them as largely hypothetical."
  • The German intelligence community however feels different and argues "that the threats are more concrete and urgent than those leaders let on". With Germany "allowing the unfettered use of military bases on German soil," Germany and neighboring countries "fear they could become potential targets for bombings or other 'hybrid' attacks" potentially "carried out by proxy agents"

 

BERLIN, GERMANY – Germany 'reviving efforts' to acquire US Tomahawk missiles

  • The Financial Times reports Sunday that "Berlin is reviving efforts to buy American Tomahawk cruise missiles after the Pentagon scrapped plans to deploy a US battalion equipped with weapons to Germany," with leaves "a gap in Europe's deterrence against Russia."
  • Germany wants to convince the Trump administration to agree to sale of Tomahawks with Typhon groundlaunchers. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will be tasked with securing a meeting with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to make the pitch, though a meeting is "far from guaranteed given the deterioration in relations between Trump and Chancellor Friedrich Merz over the war in Iran."
  • "The transactional approach" comes after Hegseth announced that a US long-range fires battalion that was "due to be deployed this year as part of prior Nato arrangements would instead be reassigned elsewhere." On Saturday, Politico reports Trump suggested the troops might be sent to Poland instead but then a deployment of 4,000 troops already in progress there was cancelled, Politico reports Thursday.

 

PARIS, FRANCE –Tunisian arrested over jihadist plot to attack Louvre, Jewish Center

  • Le Monde reports Monday that a 27 year old Tunisian national was arrested for allegedly "plotting a violent attack against the Louvre Museum and the Parisian Jewish community".
  • He was brought before an anti-terrorism judge on Monday after being held in police custody at the General Directorate of Internal Security. He was arrested "during a routine traffic stop" on May 7.
  • It is believed the unnamed man plotted "an action inspired by jihadist ideology" against the world's busiest museum or the Jewish community in the 16th arrondissement of the capital. He also allegedly considered joining the so-called Islamic State group in Syria or Mozambique.

 

BORDEAUX, FRANCE – Virus prompts cruise ship quarantine after man's death

  • France24 reports Wednesday that authorities in France have permitted passengers aboard a cruise ship who are asymptomatic to exit after "a gastrointestinal virus was behind an outbreak of a sickness that came after an elderly man died of a heart attack."
  • Authorities had locked down the cruise ship with 1,700 passengers on board "but insisted there was no connection with the hantavirus outbreak suspected of killing three people on the Dutch-flagged MV Hondius cruise ship, which has sparked international alarm."
  • In a statement, the local government and regional health agency said "a gastro-intestinal infection of viral origin" was responsible for the initial lockdown. While "there were no severe cases," with those who are asymptomatic permitted to disembark, "those infected were required to remain in isolation on board." Approximately 80 people had "symptoms consistent with an acute digestive infection".

 

VIENNA, AUSTRIA –US Air Force aircraft violate Austrian airspace two days in a row

  • The War Zone reports Tuesday that Austria "scrambled Eurofighters two days in a row to intercept US military aircraft, likely U-28As operated by Air Force Special Operations Command."
  • The Austrian Ministry of Defense said the US aircraft entered Austrian airspace "without authorization." The ministry also said the aircraft were "US Air Force PC-12 turboprops, almost certainly a reference to the U-28A Draco, which Air Force Special Operations Command uses primarily for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR)."
  • The Austrian Ministry of Defense spokesman Michael Bauer confirmed on X that the incidents took place on Sunday and Monday, with the incident on Monday occurring "in the Totes Gebirge region of Upper Austria." Once Austria intercepted the aircraft, it turned back towards Munich, Germany. In recent days, "there appears to have been something of a spike in US military aircraft activity over the Alpine region".

 

BERN, SWITZERLAND – Costs for Patriot missiles could double

  • Swissinfo reports Wednesday that US-made Patriot missile batteries that Switzerland ordered could end up costing twice as much as initially anticipated due to depleted stocks resulting from the war in Ukraine and the US and Israel war against in Iran, according to media reports published by Swiss outlets CHMedia and Tamedia.
  • The Swiss Federal Office for Armaments known as armasuisse declined to comment on the reports but a spokesperson told Swiss media "that anticipated additional costs were in the range of '50% plus'." Originally the cost was supposed to cost 2.3 billion Swiss francs ($2.94 billion).
  • After the report, the Swiss government announced an anticipated delay in delivery of five to seven years. Next steps will be decided over the summer.

 

BELLINZONA, SWITZERLAND – Man sentenced for supplying WMD materials to Russia

  • Swissinfo reports Wednesday that the Swiss Federal Criminal Court sentenced a businessman to 16 months for supplying materials for a weapons of mass destruction program to Russia.
  • The man was convicted "of multiple offences against the Goods Control Act and attempted offences." Over a period of four years, the unnamed businessman "supplied and offered to supply two men accredited with the Russian commercial agency in Bern with items distributed by his employer—a company that dealers with laboratory equipment as well as medical and pharmaceutical products."
  • In total, goods worth an estimated 75,000 Swiss francs (€82,000 or $95,400) found their way to Russia, though the man had offered close to one million Swiss francs worth of goods to his contacts. Swiss authorities intervened in 2024, putting a stop to his efforts.

 

ZÜRICH, SWITZERLAND – Rights group says 20% increase in human trafficking cases

  • Swissinfo reports Monday that there was a 20% increase in reported human trafficking cases in Switzerland in 2025 compared to the previous year.
  • The Zürich-based association FIZ Advocacy and Support of Migrant Women and Victims of Trafficking said a total of 228 people were in its victim protection program last year, with 65 of those individuals requiring "special safe accommodation". The age range of these individuals is great from young people to over 60, with a significant portion coming from Eastern Europe though people from over 80 countries required assistance. The common denominator in all the cases was a lack of decent education and work, according to Fannie Wirth of FIZ.
  • Due to under reporting, the advocacy group cautions "the figures could be much higher".

 

MONACO – UBS fined €6 million over weak money laundering controls

  • Bloomberg reports last Friday that Swiss bank UBS was fined €6 million ($7 million) by Monaco's Financial Security Authority "over weak money laundering controls, including filing a report 253 days after a suspicious transaction."
  • It is the first time Monagasque authorities have fined a global bank since the city-state was added to a "gray list" by the international Financial Action Task Force (FATF) two years ago, placing it among "jurisdictions deemed insufficiently vigilant about dirty money." Monaco, like most countries that find itself on the FATF gray list, is eager to see its removal as the perception of being a money laundering hub discourages businesses and countries that are operating above board from investing or welcoming transactions with the country.
  • In one example, UBS in Monaco took on a new Russian client "based on documents " that were "old, mostly in Russian and untranslated." UBS was also "blamed for having failed to carry out proper reviews of transactions involving high-risk territories". In another instance, UBS "got an internal alert about a €25 million transfer involving a Cayman Island company but dismissed it without making any checks" writing that the transaction was consistent with activity in that particular account and there was "nothing to report".

 

And finally…

 

JABLONNE V PODJESTEDI, CZECHIA – Police hunt for thief who stole skull from church

  • The Guardian reports Wednesday that Czech police are searching for a suspect who stole the 800 year old skull of Saint Zdislava of Lemberk from a church in the town of Jablonne v Podjested, locatedi some 110 km (68 miles) north of Prague.
  • The suspect was spotted running between the pews of of the Saint Lawrence and Zdislava basilica. While the value of the skull is unknown, a police spokeswoman said the "historical value is obviously incalculable".
  • Saint Zdislava of Lemberk was canonized in 1995 by then Pope John Paul II. She was a 13th century noblewoman noted for her generosity as well as for her work with the poor.

 

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