Merz on first official visit to China, US wants to freeze Swiss MBaer bank out of US financial system over Russia and Iran money laundering and US and Iran talks in Geneva

This week marked another year of war in Ukraine, the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Nobel Peace Laureate that year, Ukrainian civil rights lawyer Oleksandra Matviichuk, who I had the privilege of meeting in Warsaw last fall during the Warsaw Security Forum, paradoxically found it in her to acknowledge in a LinkedIn post the biggest elephant in the room, namely the absence of clear US involvement on behalf of the Ukrainian people at this moment. No senior US official joined European leaders in Kyiv to mark the occasion and while it is her country at war, not out of shame or necessarily spite but likely more out of pity, Matviichuck wrote, "I know that most Americans support Ukraine and our struggle for freedom. I am very sorry." 

Rather obviously, the apology should go the other way. The US government has taken a purely mercantile approach to the war in Europe through NATO's Priority Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) where Europeans buy American defense matériel for Ukraine while the US demeans the very term peace to a basis of personal enrichment and little more. The sorrow and the pity.

Such sorrows of course exist compounded of greater onces. First, over what is happening in Ukraine. While winter is nearly almost over, this was a cold, dark, hard winter for the Ukrainian people. For the Americans, our political system strayed very far into uncharted waters and much time has been spent picking over the Epstein files for new academics, officials, world leaders, lawyers, businesspeople to bring down, not with investigations and prosecutions but through the act of public shaming. The country that felt so shameless for so long in its political and cultural ways is not yet ready to deal with the political elites involved beyond the current administration's enemies. The Brits however have arrested the former prince, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, and their former ambassador to the US, Lord Peter Mandelson. The North Atlantic waters are bound to splash the other way eventually.

So while America is at work to recover a sense of shame, western Europe and the Alpine region has increasingly veered into shamelessness, as you will see in many of the stories in this week's monitor. We have Swiss banks living up to their reputation for concealing dirty money, antisemitism popping off from Berlin to the Italian peninsula and then we have scandals around emerging defense technologies. Much of this feels far from the front lines of Ukraine or the Anglo countries at work in reckoning with shameful behavior.

In the first two years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we have watched as Germany went from talk of a donation of 5,000 helmets to a massive defense rearmament scheme and arming Ukraine maximally where the US bowed out. Elsewhere, there is much less inertia or enthusiasm trending toward the right thing. For instance, the Swiss spent two long years reflecting on their neutrality as if national security was a Rudolf Steiner-style school project and denying neighbors the ability to transfer Swiss weapons to Ukraine to protect Europe because the Swiss think their neutrality shields them from reality, from an obligation to European security. Maybe because Germany was divided and the experience of invading Russia and then being invaded by Russia lives in the memory of the country's oldest residents, the progress there is more mature but the cost in cohesion is as well as the enemy gets a vote, too.

I do not know how many times it needs to be said but there is a flood coming and no, running to the top of the mountain will no longer do the trick. The world of the twenty-first century is one of multi-domain threats now and the luck of plucky mountain people who evade wars and conflicts with opportunism is bound to run out eventually. One prominent KGB defector in the 1980s, Yuri Bezmenov said of the American people that "When a military boot crushes his fat bottom, then he will understand but not before that." And so, this is how one must think of these neutral Alpine countries where the process of rigorous demoralization has already been underway for so long that the state essentially functions against itself.    

Welcome to the new Alpine Security Monitor! You can subscribe (and become a paid subscriber!) for weekly updates on security and geopolitics as it concerns the Alpine region, namely Austria, Czechia, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia and Switzerland (ok, little Liechtenstein and Monaco too when merited). If this was forwarded to you, welcome! Questions, complaints, musings, lucrative offers, misguided rants and related ephemera can all be addressed to the management, amanda.rivkin@securitydialogue.org. Now let's get to the week's news from around the Alpine region.

BEIJING, CHINA – German Chancellor makes first official visit to China

• The Wall Street Journal reports Wednesday that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is on a "high-stakes" visit to Beijing ahead of a trip to Washington "over the next week".
• Borrowing language straight from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's Davos speech last month, The Wall Street Journal notes, "The trips highlight the dilemma facing middle powers that are seeking to reduce their dependencies on rival great powers while not exposing their defenses or hurting their economies in the short term." The New York Times reports "Merz was accompanied on his two-day visit by the heads of more than two dozen German companies, including Volkswagon, BMW and Siemens."
• US President Donald Trump has "thrown into question" Germany's reliance on the US for security while "China's pursuit of mercantilist policies has emerged as a profound threat to Germany's economy" as it was "for years hitched" to the "explosive growth" of the world's most populous nation. The New York Times notes, "China was Germany's top trading partner last year." Once on the ground, Merz pressed "for closer diplomatic ties but also relief from economic policies that he said were impeding 'fair competition.'"

WASHINGTON, DC – US Treasury wants to block Swiss MBaer bank over sanctions busting

• The US Treasury Department said in a press release Thursday that "the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) proposed a rule, that, if finalized, would sever MBaer Merchant Bank AG (MBaer's) access to the U.S. financial system as a result of its financial support to illicit actors linked to Russia and Iran."
• The press release adds that "If finalized, the proposed rule would prohibit covered U.S. financial institutions from opening or maintaining a correspondent account for, or on behalf of, MBaer." Swissinfo reports the Swiss financial supervisory authority known as FINMA "has appointed an investigating officer", however "Due to the legal proceedings, FINMA is unable to implement its own measures against MBaer" which the US Treasury alleges is responsible for channeling "hundreds of millions of dollars through the US financial system on behalf of illicit actors with ties to Iran and Russia".
• "Since its inception," the U.S. Treasury Department alleges that "MBaer and its employees have enabled money laundering and illicit finance activities," for Russian actors as well as "terrorist financing" for such entities as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Quds Force in Iran. The Treasury Department accuses MBaer of being "a critical access node" to American dollars for "a wide variety of ilicit actors".

GENEVA, SWITZERLAND – US, Iran talks result in no deal but 'progress'

• Reuters reports Thursday that there was progress in talks between the US and Iran mediated by Oman in Geneva however no deal or breakthrough was reached "that could avert potential U.S. strikes and a massive military buildup."
• There are plans to resume talks, however, on the other side of consultations with Washington and Tehran. Related: a crimes against humanity complaint was filed in Switzerland against Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi "linked to anti-government protests" and the death of Mahsa Amini whose 2022 death in custody over an ill-fitted hijab kicked off the "women, life, freedom" protests, according to Agence France Presse. Gharibabadi was in Geneva this week for the talks with the US.
• Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said technical level discussion are scheduled for next week in Vienna, where the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is headquartered. Badr Albusaidi continues on to Washington first though for now for talks with US Vice-President JD Vance and other US officials.

GENEVA, SWITZERLAND – WEF boss Børge Brende resigns over Jeffrey Epstein links

• The Financial Times reports Thursday that "The president of the World Economic Forum, Børge Brende, has announced his resignation following an investigation by the forum into his links with the disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein."
• The investigation into Brende within the World Economic Forum and now Brende's resignation "has disrupted succession planning at the forum".
• Brende steps down "after more than eight years in the role". He released a statement Thursday with the customary platitudes thanking colleagues while co-chairs André Hoffman and Larry Fink thanked Brende for his contributions to the organization. Fink has long been rumored to want the top job, which may be within reach now. Alois Zwinggi was also named interim president and CEO with "current European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde widely expected to take over the post vacated by the forum's founder Klaus Schwab".

GENEVA, SWITZERLAND – CEO of Edmond de Rothschild Bank Epstein ties under scrutiny

• Swissinfo reports Thursday that the Geneva-headquartered Edmond de Rothschild bank is "monitoring reports of CEO Ariane de Rothschild's contact with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein", a level of concern that falls well below the threshold of a resignation in disgrace nor investigation nor arrest.
• The US Department of Justice's release of the millions of documents, photographs, videos and related Epstein ephemera showed that de Rothschild's "name appears several times" as she "met Epstein several times between 2013 and 2019". Further, Epstein "is said to have gradually become a strategic advisor and confidant."
• However those who are concerned need not fret about the health of the financial institution which "is reporting continued inflows of new money." Bank directors wish to assuage the public that they acted "promptly and responsibly" in an effort "to protect the interests of clients, employees and shareholders". Yves Perrier, the chair of the board of directors "is now working closely with executives to ensure 'coordinated and thorough independent monitoring of the situation'." Like countless others, de Rothschild claims "no knowledge of Epstein's personal behavior."

ZÜRICH, SWITZERLAND – Palantir sues Swiss magazine Republik

• The Financial Times reports Sunday that Peter Thiel-backed Palantir filed a lawsuit in January against the Swiss magazine Republik which detailed how the Swiss government repeatedly rejected the data intelligence group's services on the basis that "The company objects to Republik's presentation of the public documents and believes its right to reply has been wrongfully denied."
• Due to the current US administration's hard approach to European nations' sovereignty, Palantir is facing great skepticism over its products as "European fears over US companies managing sensitive state systems". For example, a December 2024 Swiss Armed Forces report "decided against using Palantir technology for Swiss military data since there was a risk US authorities could gain access to the sensitive files." Last week, British parliamentarian Clive Lewis cited the report "during a debate on defence contracts with Palantir."
• Last December, Republik published two stories revealing Palantir unsuccessfully approached the Swiss state "over several years" in an effort to secure federal contracts. In a statement, Palantir said it has asked Republik "to print our concise, fact-on-fact counter statement to their misleading reporting," calling it their "right under Swiss law". In all likelihood, a judge will "probably make a decision in March."

BERLIN, GERMANY – Bundestag questions drone contract over Peter Thiel ties

• Politico reports Tuesday that "Concerns over the Trump-friendly" and pro-AfD, hard right, German-born American billionaire Peter Thiel's "stake in drone startup Stark and redacted contract details are putting approval of the contract" in the German parliament known as the Bundestag "at risk."
• The "multibillion-euro German military drone contract has triggered scrutiny" with the ruling coalition "over its most prominent investor," Peter Thiel, who "is at the center of a political controversy" as members of parliament "question whether his could give him direct or indirect influence" and "access to sensitive defense information." Defense contracts exceeding €25 million ($29.5 million) require parliamentary approval in Germany. Lawmakers are seeking to implement "conditional approval that would attach binding requirements to the contract".
• The contract seen by Politico "is structured as a seven-year framework agreement" and includes "an initial fixed order worth €268.6 million" ($317 million). There are "optional orders", which if included, would bring the value of the contract to €2.86 billion ($3.38 billion). Fun note: the story in Politico is festooned with ads for Stark that read: Speed. Scale. Sovereignty. One might add: Subtle.

BERLIN, GERMANY – AfD pressing for details of NATO weaknesses after Estonia exercise

• Politico reports Thursday that the far-right, Russia-aligned AfD "has triggered security fears" by "officially requesting information on vulnerabilities in NATO defenses".
• In a February 19 letter from AfD's defense spokesperson Rüdiger Lucassen obtained by Politico, the AfD sought information regarding the Hedgehog 2025 exercise which took place in Estonia where "Ukrainian drone specialists used tactics learned on the battlefield to 'destroy' NATO units in a war game." In the letter, Lucassen asks, "What capability gaps were identified"?
• The German Ministry of Defense can withhold classified information however in general, opposition parties have wide leverage to seek information and the ministry typically responds to formal queries.

BERLIN, GERMANY – Future of film festival in question after pro-Palestine awards show

• Deutsche Welle reports Thursday that an "emergency meeting" took place as "the fate of the film festival" Berlinale "head Tricia Tuttle remains uncertain" following "A Palestinian award winner's accusation that Germany supports genocide" at the ceremony last Sunday, which "sparked political backlash."
• The meeting was called by the Brandenburg State Cultural Minister Wolfram Weiner in order "to discuss incidents at the recent Berlinale in which, among other things, artists expressed solidarity with Gaza and criticized festival and jury leadership". German tabloid Bild reported Weiner intended to dismiss Tuttle "in light of the political backlash generated by speeches at the award ceremony on February 22." Comments made by Syrian-Palestinian director Abdallah Alkhatib, who won the Best First Feature Award for the film "Chronicles from the Siege," proved most controversal as he asked why Germany was "partners of the genocide in Gaza by Israel" while wearing a kaffiyeh as a colleague unfurled a Palestinian flag on stage.
• More than 500 Berlinale employees signed a letter "opposing her rumored dismissal" and 700 German and international filmmakers signed a different but similar open letter.  Since 2024, the Berlinale has been confronting accusations of antisemitism. Of note: as a former employee of Deutsche Welle, I pity my former colleagues who had to work to get this story cleared through the internal checks which can often lead to a full Kafka-esque experience if Israel or Jewish life is concerned.

PARIS, FRANCE – US Ambassador skips out on summons but phones it in later

• CNN reports Sunday that the US Ambassador to France Charles Kushner, the father of Trump son-in-law turned aspiring Henry Kissinger, Jared Kushner, was summoned to the French Foreign Ministry "over comments made about the death of a French far-right activist earlier this month," which the ministry deemed "interference" in the country's internal affairs. By Tuesday, Kushner reportedly skipped out on the meeting, according to NBC News, leading France to bar him from meeting with government officials "over summons no-show". Later Tuesday, however, Kushner was dialing it back or dialing it up "with a phone call" to French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, Politico reports.
• The row stems from an incident in which far-right activist "Quentin Deranque, 23, died two days after suffering severe head injuries in a brawl in the city of Lyon on February 12" outside an event where far-left Member of the European Parliament Rima Hassan was speaking. On X Friday, the US Embassy in Paris shared a "post from the State Department's Counterterrorism Bureau which said reports that Deranque 'was killed by left-wing militants should concern us all", adding "Violent radical leftism is on the rise". Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has also weighed in, sparking "a diplomatic spat between France and Italy".
• It is not the first time Kushner has been summoned over perceived meddling in France's internal affairs. Previously, he was summoned to explain himself after he "accused the French government of a 'lack of sufficient action' in confronting antisemitism."

PARIS, FRANCE – Louvre Museum director resigns in wake of high profile heist

• The AP reports Wednesday that the director of the Louvre Museum, Laurence des Cars, in the French capital resigned Tuesday "after months of pressure following the October theft of the French crown jewels".
• The most visited museum in the world, the Louvre is facing scrutiny "over security failures, labor unrest and a suspected ticket fraud scheme" that may have cost the museum as much as €10 million ($11.8 million). In mid-February a pipe burst near the Mona Lisa, the museum's most famous work of art, "damaging priceless books".
• The result of the compound problems is "a narrative of an institution spiraling out of control." French President Emmanuel Macron accepted des Cars resignation as "an act of responsibility" but he also hopes to give him a new role during France's G7 presidency "focused on cooperation among major museums". In English, this is known as failing up.

MILAN, ITALY – Arrest of police officer for murder sparks political row

• The Guardian reports Tuesday that "The arrest of an Italian police officer," Carmelo Cinturrino, "on suspicion of murder over the fatal shooting of a Moroccan man," Abderrahim Mansouri, 28, has sparked a political row "after the opposition accused Giorgia Meloni's far-right government of exploiting the case for political ends."
• Mansouri was shot in the head by Cinturrino "during a police drugs patrol" in Milan in late January. Initially, Cinturrino said he acted in "self-defense after Mansouri pulled a gun on him", however, "prosecutors in Milan said Cinturrino's version of events had been contradicted by witnesses" and that "a gun found at the scene – which fired only blanks – was planted there by Cinturrino to support his story." Further investigations indicated "Mansouri had feared the police officer and wanted to report him for allegedly demanding drugs and protection money." Video surveillance also showed "the victim was not holding a weapon when he was attacked".
• The conservative government of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni cited the case "as an example of why a proposed law aimed at giving more protection to police officers using weapons in self-defence should be swiftly passed." By contrast, "Elly Schlein, the leader of the centre-left Democratic party, accused the government of using the Rogoredo case for 'political speculation', while Giuseppe Conte, who leads the Five Star Movement, said the government had made 'a serious blunder'."

MILAN, ITALY – Jewish center documents 'record number' of hateful incidents in 2025

• The Times of Israel reports Wednesday the Center of Contemporary Jewish Documentation recorded a record 963 antisemitic incidents last year.
• The Center's annual report shows an "upward trend" over the last four years, with most incidents reportedly occuring online while "Physical acts, including graffiti, vandalism and desecration of synagogues, threats, intimidation and assaults" accounting for 320 cases. Examples include "synagogue vandalism in Rome with Nazi slogans, physical assaults on Jewish individuals in Milan, and verbal harassment in Venice."
• A survey taken last September found that "around 15% of Italians view attacks on Jews as 'justifiable.'" The Center's researches "warn that antisemitic discourse is becoming increasingly normalized in Italian society".

CORTINA D'AMPEZZO, ITALY – Investigation opened after death of construction guard

• People reports Saturday that "Italian officials have launched a probe into the death of a security guard," identified as Pietro Santonini, 55, who died on January 8 while patroling the construction site in front of the Olympic stadium.
• The prosecutor's office in Belluno province opened the probe after Santonini died during an overnight shift that began on January 7 at 7 p.m. He fell ill at approximately 2 a.m. the next morning but "stopped breathing before an ambulance arrived".
• An autopsy revealed Santonini died of a heart attack "brought on by the freezing temperatures". Investigators are now probing "aggravating circumstances," for example "unsafe work and environmental conditions" that may have contributed to his death. Originally from Brindisi in southern Italy, Santonini "was first hired on a fixed-term contract in September 2025."

FELDKIRCH, AUSTRIA – Ex-official ordered to pay victims for secretly filming in locker room

• The Guardian reports "a former top-level referee in Switzerland but also an official at Altach" in Austria was ordered to pay the women he secretly photographed and recorded in "the changing room, gym and showers of the Altach women's football team" €625 ($739) each, in addition to a €1,200 ($1,418) fine and a seven-month suspended jail sentence.
• A judge at a regional court in Feldkirch handed down the sentence, and noted there is a distinction between "if one looks at pictures or actually creates them oneself." The man worked at the club between 2020 and 2025, with roughly 30 players "identified on the recordings and pictures". The national Sports Minister Michaela Schmidt called the crimes "disgusting" back in October when it was first reported in the local press.
• Eleni Rittman who currently plays in Evian, France but previously played for Altach said, "he filmed players, including minors." She questioned whether "such a punishment" would "act as a deterrent for others". According to The Guardian, "The case has had a big impact in Austria".

Stay safe and slava Ukraini!

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