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Macron announces 'military resources' to Saudi, France holds crisis meeting over violent student demonstrations and the far-right National Rally gain Senate seats

Macron announces 'military resources' to Saudi, France holds crisis meeting over violent student demonstrations and the far-right National Rally gain Senate seats

It has been an interesting week, in part because we seem to have arrived on the autumn of everyone's discontent, the "find out" phase after so much fucking around, as the American favorite "FAFO" postulates.

Terrorism came roaring back into the headlines from Saudi air space with the FlyDubai incident and US President Donald Trump suggesting the pilot who stabbed his captain "may be linked to Iran", CNN reports Friday. Also in Iran-related news, oil prices remain stubbornly high as one of the world's most important choke points is the centerpiece of what we can diplomatically term a long running dispute between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other.

More details about Leipzig are also shaking out, including a clearer link to the GRU and some interesting details that I will leave for one of our items below, with even more details in the fuller Politico piece. At the German Embassy in Bern for Unity Day last night, the German Ambassador Markus Potzel made sure to call out and attention to this incident and gratefully revived use of the term "state terror" in his speech greeting guests.

Ukraine has sought to brand Russia "a terrorist state," in part because they have been fighting Russia for so long that there was still a war on terror in those days. For the first six years of Russia's unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine and the civilian population, the US was still invested in Afghanistan. The branding made sense then as there was competition for global attention with terrorist groups doing some really innovative and flashy things with GoPros and sadism.

However, it was never accurate given what we used to term irregular warfare was not the primary instrument with which Russia attacked Ukraine after the initial seizure of Crimea by "little green men". Now the boundaries between regular and irregular are being subverted and challenged by the innovative use of drones by both sides of that conflict. 

So while state terror is not something to welcome, let's drop pretenses of hybrid or cognitive warfare – my old office mate at NATO's Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence in Riga, Latvia would be the first to point out that all warfare is cognitive. Russia is not a terrorist state either. No, we are way passed that. 

When I interviewed the last Director of Domestic Counter-intelligence for the Soviet KGB Oleg Kalugin at the Spy Museum in Washington, DC nearly 20 years ago, he described Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime as not as bloody but just as criminal as that of former Soviet leader Joseph Stalin. Putin would enjoy hearing his adversaries speak of him this way.

In any case, state terror is the appropriate frame for present Russia. The destabilization of Europe is its ultimate end goal. As a rentier petrostate that treats its own human capital as grist for the meat grinder, the boundaries of its terror must be held in check and confined to the Russia that refuses to stand up for itself because to do so would mean to get put down immediately. Acknowledging Russia as a perpetrator of state terror is to see with clarity the problem for what it is.

Whereas previous iterations of terror in our lifetimes may have involved elements of the Saudi or Pakistani state, for example, we never had the gravure of the House of Saud fully on 9/11 nor the Pakistani military more than Bin Laden's Abbottabad compound, though you could not ask for more. But perhaps as we move from an era of the war of terror to one with state terror in the fore, we will look back on that earlier period not as some sort of halcyon days, it was not, but rather with new wisdom about the nature and sponsorship of a beastly thing we have been confronting for decades if not centuries already.

Welcome to the Alpine Security Monitor. We urge you to subscribe (and become a paid subscriber!) for weekly updates on security and geopolitics as it concerns the Alpine region, namely Austria, Czechia, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia and Switzerland (ok, little Liechtenstein and Monaco too when merited).

 

PARIS, FRANCE – Macron announces 'military resources' sent to Saudi Arabia

  • Le Monde reports Saturday that French President Emmanuel Macron announced in an interview at the Élysée palace last Thursday that France is deploying "soldiers, radars, and defense systems to protect Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure, which has been targeted by the pro-Iranian Houthi forces from Yemen".
  • Macron specifically stated that "military means" were being deployed "to protect the Yanbu oil terminal, the endpoint of the East-West pipeline and the main export route for crude oil without passing through the Strait of Hormuz."
  • Riyadh is currently "seeking to diversify its partnerships". In announcing the nature of the defense cooperation with Saudi, France is shifting from more "discreet, ambiguous" shows of support that had traditionally been "marked by extreme caution".

 

PARIS, FRANCE – Crisis meeting convened over escalating student demonstrations

  • The Associated Press reports Thursday that "France's prime minister convened a crisis meeting" in response to "protests, some violent, by high school students venting about under-resourced schools, long hours and other complaints."
  • Demonstrations first erupted in the "Paris area" last week but "have snowballed, with police making hundreds of arrests in clashes with the young protesters." The protests are now "a hot topic" defining next year's presidential race at present. Deutsche Welle reports Friday that 400 schools across France "remained closed on Friday".
  • France is beset by "financial problems" which are "growing" and the protests are "overshadowing" the release Thursday of the government's "proposed cost-cutting budget for 2027."

 

PARIS, FRANCE – Far-right National Rally party and allies gain Senate seats

  • The Guardian reports Monday that "National Rally and allies gain record 14 seats and can form senate group for first time after indirect vote by local officials".
  • Partial French Senate elections took place last weekend. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen called the victory "historic" and lauded it as a "major milestone". Le Pen is currently polling high and party leader Jordan Bardella (more on him in the next item) will be boosted by the electoral romp.
  • National Rally first entered the Senate in 2014 when it was still known as the National Front.

 

PARIS, FRANCE – Jordan Bardella caught up in accusations of youthful antisemitic whispers

  • Politico reports Tuesday that while "Jordan Bardella was meant to be the young, telegenic face of the far-right" National Rally led by Marine Le Pen, the daughter of one of twentieth century France's great anti-Semites, Jean-Marie Le Pen, but now, alas a bit predictably, Bardella faces allegation published in Mediapart "that he expressed antisemitic views in private conversations with fellow National Rally members in 2013, when he was 17."
  • Juicy as that is, Politico is saucing up their lede a bit in writing, "the 31-year-old might have just become their biggest liability." Bardella allegedly told party mates, "the Jew must dominate other peoples, crush them and rob them," and "all banks are held by Jews," which would certainly be news to a great many of Swiss people not named Rothschild. On Thursday, the outlet released "evidence" to support its reporting and had them authenticated by Meta, Le Monde reports Friday.
  • Bardella is suing Mediapart and Le Pen and he allege the story is "part of a broader concerted effort to prevent the far-right veteran, who is currently topping the polls, from winning the election this year." My oppo experience tells me that where there is smoke there is fire and dropping something of this sort far ahead of an election is planting a flag for if and or when a larger narrative with more moving parts and pieces takes hold.

 

PARIS, FRANCE – Eiffel Tower chief steps down over row involving Hindu sect's visit

  • France 24 reports Tuesday that "The head of the Eiffel Tower is set to step down in the wake of a controversy sparked by the removal of female workers during a private visit of the Paris landmark by members of the Hindu sect BAPS".
  • The incident "triggered a walkout" last month and "sparked outrage in France." Patrick Branco Ruivo had been in charge of the landmark since 2018 but will now exit his role at the end of the year.
  • The walkout occurred on September 8 in protest of "management's decision days earlier to sideline female workers during a visit by members of the Bochasanwasi Shri Ashkar Purushottam Swaminarayan Sanstha", also known as BAPS. Politicians across the political spectrum then commented in support of the female workers and French secular values.

 

LEIPZIG/HALLE AIRPORT, GERMANY – New details over explosive drone incident

  • Politico reports Friday "The device attached to the drone in Leipzig bore striking similarities to those recovered from Lithuanian caches," which were deposited in a graveyard by a Ukrainian man arrested by the Poles who was acting on behalf of Russian foreign intelligence, the GRU, in 2024.
  • In August 2024, "police investigators arrived at a cemetery in Kaunas, Lithuania with a bomb disposal team." The "highly sensitive tip" came from Poland and concerned "explosives and a Ukrainian man alleged to have deposited them there for Russian intelligence". In January and June of last year, "investigators unearthed more explosive-filled cans at various locations in Lithuania." Analysis of those devices and the Leipzig incident device show "striking similarities" which while "alone does not establish that the devices belonged to the same operation." Two Western officials though told Politico that "it fits with other evidence".
  • German and European security officials are pointing the finger at Unit 29155 of the GRU which is responsible for "destabilization operations in European countries."

 

HEIDENAU, GERMANY – Christian Democrats join far-right to block memorial stones

  • The Times of Israel reports last Friday that the Christian Democrats (CDU) joined the far-right Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) in the town of Heidenau near Dresden in blocking "the future installation of brass plaques commemorating victims of Nazi persecution," which "has fueled debate over the CDU's adherence to the 'Brandmauer', an informal firewall by which Germany's mainstream parties rule out formal cooperation with the AfD."
  • For those not in the know, the so-called "stumbling stones" or "'Stolpersteine' are a prominent feature of Germany's Holocaust remembrance culture." The decision last Thursday in Heidenau "comes as the AfD tops national polls".
  • The AfD has a history of "frequently" challenging "Germany's Holocaust remembrance, with co-founder Alexander Gauland once describing the Nazi era as merely 'bird shit' in an otherwise successful 1,000 years of German history."

 

ROME, ITALY – Italian forces complete withdraw 12 years after Islamic State

  • Reuters reports Tuesday that an Italian Ministry of Defense statement noted that the country had "completed the withdrawal of its last troops from Iraq".
  • Most personnel were recalled in March of this year "after an over night air strike targeted a military base in the Kurdistan region."
  • Italian forces were in Iraq as part of the US-led Operation Inherent Resolve against the Islamic State terror group.

 

ROME, ITALY – Investigators raid neo-Nazi network over synagogue attack plot

  • Israel's Ynet reports last Friday that "Italian security forces seached the homes of 17 people, including 14 minors" in a "nationwide investigation" over their involvement in "an online neo-Nazi and white supremacist network" that uncovered "instructional material related to homemade explosives and the use of knives and firearms".
  • Members of the network "allegedly spread antisemitic propaganda, praised Adolf Hitler and discussed attacks on a synagogue, mosque and school" and "shared manifestos written by far-right mass killers including Anders Breivik, Brenton Tarrant and Stephan Balliet." Investigators say "the probe grew out of prolongued monitoring of online groups and profiles linked to neo-Nazi, white supremacist and accelerationist ideology."
  • The online groups had such operationally secure names as "New European Order Chat" and "Italian Fascist Front" which might be why so many of the suspects are underage, given the volatile cocktail of inexperience with covert methods and adolescent hubris.

 

ROME, ITALY – Italian left boycotts vote on antisemitism bill 'amid split on left'

  • Reuters reports Wednesday that "Italy's Democratic Party did not take part in a parliamentary vote" over "a highly contested bill against antisemitism, highlighting divisions on the left over a law seen as potentially curbing criticism of Israel."
  • A source within the party described "the definition of antisemitism included in the bill" as "divisive" and asked that "the right-wing ruling coalition" would "change its formulation," though "this call is likely to fall on deaf ears." The bill seeks to write into law the International Holocaust Rememberance Alliance's "definition of antisemitism, which lists certain criticisms of Israel as examples of antisemitism."
  • The argument against rests on "freedom of expression, censoring legitimate activism for Palestinian rights and contributing to conflating Jews with the state of Israel."

 

BERN, SWITZERLAND – Majority of Swiss voters reject neutrality initiative

  • CNBC reports Sunday that Swiss voters "firmly" rejected an initiative dubbed "the neutrality initiative" which would have "blocked" Switzerland from imposing economic sanctions on Russia as it has joined the EU sanctions regime and curbed "cooperating with NATO."
  • "More than two-thirds" rejected the initiative that was put forward by the pro-Russia faction within Switzerland's far-right Swiss People's Party (Schweizerische Volkspartei or SVP) which formally would have enshrined "a strictly defined version of neutrality into the Swiss constitution".
  • For weeks across Switzerland, "The campaign had funded posters across the country urging people to vote 'No to war, yes to neutrality,' featuring white peace doves ahead of the vote." Now that the Swiss have voted contrary to those instructions, one presumes the very active harassment campaign against individuals who ever said something nice about NATO within Switzerland can shift towards scapegoating for the massive defeat.

 

COLIGNY, SWITZERLAND – Iranian WEF employee fired, investigated for false accusation

  • Swissinfo reports Tuesday that "An employee of the Swiss-based World Economic Forum (WEF)" who is of Iranian origin "was arrested in January after an anonymous email accused her of planning an attack on US President Donald Trump at the WEF's annual meeting in Davos."
  • Switzerland's Office of the Attorney General said "the suspicions were not confirmed by the investigation" but that in the meanwhile, the employee who had only been on the job "a few months" was "arrested at her workplace and questioned for over six hours." Additionally, "Her mobile phones and computer were seized and her social media activity was examined," following an email sent "January 21 to the US Embassy in Bern, shortly before Trump's arrival in Switzerland." The Attorney General said, "The allegations contained in the email were not substantiated in any respect".
  • Now an investigation has been opened into who sent the email from an email address that was "created just a few minutes before it was sent and has not been used since."

 

BERN, SWITZERLAND – Gianni Infantino loses support of Switzerland in bid for FIFA head

  • ABC News reports Wednesday that "Gianni Infantino formally lost support from his home nation Switzerland" in his bid to become the next president of global soccer federation FIFA.
  • Europe's soccer body UEFA "has led calls to remove its long-time former employee Infantino" after he "failed" in an effort "to sell stakes in the World Cup to private investors." Further, "The Swiss federation also cited concern" over how he handled "pressure from US President Donald Trump not to impost a mandatory one-game ban on the World Cup co-host nation's forward Folarin Balogun from a round of 16 game against Belgium earlier this year."
  • The Swiss federation cited "the need for credibility, transparency, accountability and effective statutory bodies". In June, the Swiss federation had "first pledged support for Infantino".

 

And finally…

 

LINZ, AUSTRIA – Israeli player ejected from game over celebratory gun gesture

  • The Jerusalem Post reports "Israel forward Saied Abu Farchi was shown a red card after celebrating his goal against Austria by using the corner flag to mimic a gun" at Raiffeisen Arena in Linz "during Israel's 3-1 UEFA Nations League defeat to Austria last Thursday".
  • Abu Farchi was ejected 55 minutes into the game, leaving his team with 10 players on the field, after he had already received a yellow card four minutes earlier. With two yellow cards equivalent to one red card, Abu Farchi was shown off the field.
  • The goal flag gun gesture "incident" comes "amid growing pressure from some groups calling for Israel's national team to be excluded from international competitions over the ongoing war in Gaza."

  

Stay safe and do not let state terror win!

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