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France boards Russian shadow fleet ship, journalists geolocate the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier using the Strava app and Slovenia becomes the first EU nation to introduce fuel rationing amid the Middle East conflict

France boards Russian shadow fleet ship, journalists geolocate the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier using the Strava app and Slovenia becomes the first EU nation to introduce fuel rationing amid the Middle East conflict

Stocks are sinking, Western allies are balking and the other drum beats of consequence march on. It has been another week where the strong show fragility. Once again the world is reminded that some fundamentals of power connect us, namely energy and supply chains. We have seen this movie before and in recent memory too, but the world has shifted. Any playbooks that were drawn up before are in need of revision. Here we are in the land of unintended consequences. Whether an American President or a local notable, all are feeling the weight of the moment.

Behind the scenes, at our nascent organization there has also been a soft launch of sorts along with a necessary house cleaning. Spring is here, after all, and with it attempts to impose winter on illiberal forces. We position ourselves as being in a place to elevate the discourse around security politics in the heart of the Alpine region to the extent we, as private citizens in an independent organization, are capable. If states demure, citizens must take up the cause and fight for their future. It is not complicated nor self-aggrandizing but rather an understanding that we, again as private citizens in a nonpartisan, independent organization, owe it to the next generation to tidy up a bit after the previous generations.

To this end, we hosted our first event in Bern this week, a geopolitics pub quiz, which to be frank was nothing less than an info op. We wanted to know where the level of discourse on international relations stands in the Swiss capital even among those who profess to care. Suffice to say, we have had our experiences where we have been surprised by what so-called experts do not know and how truly little some of them have to say. If Shakespeare wrote in As You Like It, that "All the world's a stage," then some seem more enamored with the stage than the world.

At our pub quiz, our favorite nearly wrong-answers-only question dipped back in time, to a rare millennial period of minute chaos, when the Iran nuclear deal was signed by the P5+1 comprised of the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany. We asked the frustrating question, what does the acronym JCPOA that the deal is known by stand for? Herewith some possibilities from the realm of alternative facts:

Joint Comprehensive Proliferation Agreement
Joint Comprehensive Proliferation of Atomic Weapons
Joint Comprehensive Prevention of Arms Agreement
Joint Committee for Proliferation of Arms
Joint Comprehensive Proliferation Oversight Agreement
Joint Command Pact Observatory America

Of course, the correct answer is Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – how could anyone imagine otherwise? It is not catchy nor are the words meaningfully imbued with gravitas. Perhaps the low impact name or perhaps the plane full of cash the Americans sent to seal the deal paved the way for this eventual outcome, the moment we live now? Also as a branding exercise, it can be considered a case study in failure.

We also extended invites to our first, invitation-only symposium in Bern next month on April 22-23. And now the hard fundraising push as we, in this moment, face a fair bit of uncertainty. If you wish to attend, but have not received an invitation to do so, we invite you to step up and upgrade your annual membership level of the Alpine Security Monitor to Warrior. Successful products and independence come at a cost and we would be most grateful for your support in shouldering some of ours.

Welcome to the new Alpine Security Monitor! You can subscribe (and become a paid subscriber!) for weekly updates on security and geopolitics as it concerns the Alpine region, namely Austria, Czechia, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia and Switzerland (ok, little Liechtenstein and Monaco too when merited). If this was forwarded to you, welcome! Questions, complaints, musings, lucrative offers, misguided rants and related ephemera can all be addressed to the management, amanda.rivkin@securitydialogue.org. Now let's get to the week's news from around the Alpine region.

MEDITERRANEAN SEA, FRENCH TERRITORIAL WATERS – France boards shadow fleet ship

  • Reuters reports last Friday that the French Navy boarded and seized a Mozambique-flagged oil tanker named Deyna that is linked to Russia's shadow fleet in the western Mediterranean.
  • Deyna set sail from the Russian port of Murmansk. The operation was carried out in collaboration with the Royal British Navy and the vessel was escorted to port at the request of French prosecutors.
  • The US has temporarily eased sanctions on Russian oil due to the soaring price of oil as a result of the joint US-Israel war against Iran.   

 

MEDITERRANEAN SEA – Journalists connect Strava app with Charles de Gaulle's location

  • ABC News reports last Friday that "France says it's taking 'appropriate measures' after a naval officer's use of the Strava sports app inadvertantly enabled journalists to geolocate the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle in the Mediterranean".
  • The deployment of the Charles de Gaulle this month "was not a secret" as its commander had "briefed journalists by video link from aboard the nuclear-powered 42,000-ton vessel."
  • Le Monde was able to geolocate the ship "by using Strava to locate a naval officer who it said used the performance app during a morning jog on March 13". Journalists were then able to "find the Charles de Gaulle in the Mediterranean using a satellite image taken that same day."

 

LJUBLJANA, SLOVENIA – Slovenia is first EU to introduce fuel rationing amid crisis

  • The BBC reports Monday that "Slovenia has become the first EU member state to implement fuel rationing" amid the US and Israeli war on Iran that has tighten supplies and constricted travel through the critical Strait of Hormuz.
  • Motorists will be restricted to 50 liters (13.2 gallons) per day while businesses and farmers are restricted to 200 liters (52.8 gallons) per day.
  • Slovenia has become a destination for so-called "fuel tourism" as residents of neighboring countries and Austria in particular travel across the border to take advantage of the lower price of fuel in Slovenia. Far-right Austrian leader Herbert Kickl has used the phenomenon as a political attack by "posting a photo of Austrian-plated vehicles waiting to fill up at a Slovenian petrol station" while asking "Isn't this sad" that "it has become necessary for many to go abroad so that life is cheaper?"

 

COLOGNE, GERMANY – Lufthansa Group cancels flights to the Gulf region until fall

  • Swissinfo reports Monday that the Lufthansa Group, which includes Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines, Edelweiss, ITA Airways and Lufthansa, is suspending flights to the Gulf region until October 24 as a result of "the unstable situation in the Middle East" with flights to Dubai and Tel Aviv canceled through at least the end of May.
  • Flights to Abu Dhabi, Amman, Beirut, Dammam, Erbil, Muscat, Riyadh and Tehran are suspended until at least October 24.
  • Citing "The safety of passengers and crews", ticketholders for these routes can either exchange for a later date or receive a refund.

 

MARSEILLE, FRANCE – French far-right loses big in municipal elections with one exception

  • Reuters reports Sunday that "France's far-right National Rally (RN) failed to win control of any major city" in the nationwide municipal elections, however "an ally, Eric Ciotti, who heads his own staunchly conservative UDR party, won in Nice, France's fifth-largest city."
  • The municipal elections were widely viewed as a sociopolitical barometer of the electorate ahead of next year's presidential elections as well as a test of "the resilience of mainstream parties in a fragmented political landscape" but one that nonetheless "does not offer a neat forecast of who will succeed Macron."
  • In Paris, Socialist candidate Emmanuel Gregoire defeated conservative ex-minister Rachida Dati, thus ensuring "the French capital remains in left-wing hands."

 

PARIS, FRANCE – Edmond de Rothschild Paris offices raided over diplomat's Epstein ties

  • Reuters reports Tuesday that "French investigators searched the Paris offices of Swiss bank Edmond de Rothschild as part of an inquiry into alleged corruption involving a French diplomat", Fabrice Aidan, "a middle-ranking French diplomat who was seconded to the United Nations from 2006 to 2013 and later worked at the bank" over ties to the late disgraced financier and sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein.
  • Aidan's name appeared in more than 200 documents of the more than three million documents released by the US Department of Justice collected over years in connection with Epstein. Aidan was in contact with Epstein from 2010 to 2016 using both his personal and UN email accounts. Aidan transferred documents including "UN Security Council briefings and other confidential documents".
  • France's national office against corruption and financial and tax offenses is leading the investigation and questioned Aidan in February in what is described as "a voluntary interview".  Swiss federal prosecutors did not say whether they are investigating as well as Ariane de Rothschild and her "years-long personal correspondence with Epstein before his 2019 arrest" also were revealed in the US Justice Department's documents dump.

 

PARIS, FRANCE – Swiss Islamic scholar Tariq Ramadan receives 18 years for rape cases

  • Swissinfo reports Thursday that the "Swiss Islamic scholar Tariq Ramadan was sentenced on Wednesday to 18 years' imprisonment by the Paris criminal court".
  • Ramadan was tried in absentia "behind closed doors for the rape of three women." Presiding Judge Corinne Goetzmann "ordered that he be subject to judicial supervision for a period of eight years, prohibiting in particular from entering into contact with the victims, as well as distributing any information relation to his offence." An arrest warrant has been issued and Goetzmann also ordered that he "be permanently banned from French territory once his sentence had been served."
  • Ramadan was previously convicted of rape in Switzerland. He has been on trial since March 2 in Paris for three additional rapes which occurred between 2009 and 2016. He was not present when the trial opened due to hospitalization related to multiple sclerosis in Geneva.

 

ROME, ITALY – Meloni's referendum for judicial overhaul fails, dents 'Her Aura'

  • The New York Times reports Tuesday that "Voters on Monday rejected" a plan put forward by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni "to overhaul Italy's judiciary" which remains notoriously independent.
  • Italy's largest newspaper Corriere della Serra said the defeat was "clear and decisive" while left-wing newspaper L'Unità wrote "Daughter of the People Crushed" while "Union leaders organized celebratory parties in major cities across the country."
  • One senior official announced his resignation "after drawing flak during the campaign for insulting the judiciary and aggressively criticizing the opposition."

 

ROME, ITALY – Two anarchists killed in explosion while making a bomb

  • Euractiv reports Saturday that a pair of Italian anarchists, a couple named as Sara Ardizzone and Alessandro Mercogliano, "were killed in an explosion at a cabin on the outskirts of Rome, apparently while making a bomb".
  • The pair died while preparing "a protest" which was "meant to draw attention to the fate of jailed anarchist figurehead Alfredo Cospito". The duo were previously known to police "for their activism in the anarchist movement."
  • Cospito, 58, is currently serving 20 years for "a pair of parcel bombs and attacks targeting authorities." He is held in "highly restrictive prison conditions applied to terrorists and mafia members". Three years ago he staged a hunger strike in protest. In May, a court will decide "whether to relax his detention conditions".

 

PARDUBICE, CZECHIA – Unknown group claims arson attack at Czech-Israeli drone plant

  • Euractiv reports last Friday that a previously unknown group calling itself The Earthquake Faction claimed responsibility for "A fire at an industrial site in Pardubice, eastern Czechia" that "is being probed as a possible terror attack after a group claimed responsibility and linked it to the war in Gaza."
  • "LPP Holding, which announced cooperation with Israel's Elbit Systems on drone development in 2023" was the apparent target of The Earthquake Faction's attack, which claimed responsibility in emails to Czech media, describing the site as an "epicentre of the Israeli arms industry in Europe". The group also shared footage of the arson attack.
  • Czech "Interior Minister Lubomir Metnar convened a crisis meeting" but said "there was no indication of an immediate further threat." Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš called the incident "very serious" on social media.

 

BERN, SWITZERLAND – Switzerland halts weapons exports to the US over Iran War

  • Reuters reports last Friday that Switzerland said "it would not issue licenses for companies to export weapons to the United States" as a result of the US-Israel campaign against Iran.
  • In a statement, the government said, "The export of war materiel to countries involved in the international armed conflict with Iran cannot be authorised for the duration of the conflict". Switzerland is currently waiting on Patriots for air defense, which have already been delayed due to the prioritization of materiel for Ukraine purchased by European nations due to Russia's war of aggression, and 30 F35 fighter jets, down from an initial order of 36 due to controversy in Switzerland over the rising cost.
  • Last weekend, the Swiss government denied the US two flyover requests due to the war against Iran but permitted three others, "also citing Switzerland's neutrality law." It's as if the country will never need to defend itself with more than theater troops someday.

 

BERN, SWITZERLAND – Offices of Israeli drone manufacturer Elbit attacked with a hammer

  • Swissinfo reports Tuesday that "The Bern office of the Israeli defence contractor Elbit Systems was damaged last Friday" after "an unknown female suspect gained access to Elbit's office premises shortly after 8pm and caused property damage amounting to tens of thousands of francs."
  • A video circulating online by activists shows the office door attacked with a hammer after triggering the fire alarm. A police complaint was filed over the incident. No one was harmed and police are investigating.
  • In late 2024, "the entrance to the office building where Elbit Systems has its headquarters was spray-painted."

 

BERN, SWITZERLAND – Swiss government approves money laundering plan

  • Reuters reports last Friday that the Swiss government "approved a plan for combating money laundering and terorist financing", asserting the new mechanisms "would strengthen controls while protecting the integrity of the country", which sees itself as "Singapore on the rocks" when it fact it is much more Cyprus.
  • Switzerland "will now focus on developing instruments for criminal prosecution and stronger supervisory authorities in the coming years". New mechanisms are said to include improved databases and "preparing a third national risk assessment on money laundering, following the first two in 2015 and 2021".
  • Last September, lawmakers "had sought to water down government proposals on preventing financial crime," likely due to elite cronyism within the country and the extraordinary profitability of neutrality. The ostensible excuse then was that "the country needed to stay competitive in cross-border wealth management" while money does not care who owns it.

 

And finally…

 

PLATTENBURG, GERMANY – Research reveals handgun fragment may be Europe's oldest

  • The Jerusalem Post reports Saturday that "Fragments of a handgun", nicknamed the "Kletzke Hand Cannon" for the castle where it was "discovered in Brandenburg, Germany, may rewrite the timeline of portable black powder weapons in Europe".
  • First uncovered in 2023 "by volunteer archeological conservator Matthias Dasse", the artifact was brought "to the Lower Monument Protection Authority of Prignitz Head Gordon Thalmann for further study" who "identified the fragment as the barrel of an early firearm". In consultation with fellow historian Clemens Bergstedt, the duo "estimated that it may be from the 1390 siege of Kletzke Castle".
  • Big "If a connection between the 'Kletzke Hand Cannon' and the siege is confirmed by archeologists, this would make it nine years older than the Tannenberg rifle, which is dated to 1399." Another caveat is that "even if the fragment does date to the siege, the firearm was most likely not crafted locally," but rather "brought over by outsiders."

 

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