Alpine nations react to Iran conflict, France assists Belgium in halting shadow fleet ship and Switzerland signs air passenger data exchange deal with the EU

Here in the Swiss capital, there is a provincial tendency to imagine the mountains are a fortress, the village is the world and feelings are somehow important. None of this is true but no matter, if you believe a lie long enough, people come to accept it as truth. If others can also accept the lie, then it can become somehow truth because the world beyond this little patch of sky cannot reach it to challenge it. This is not real deterrence but rather a collective delusion for which the mountains and the human mind provide the architecture. 

However, just over the mountains, in the neighboring countries, where the vacation from history can be measured in mere decades as opposed to nearly two centuries, security is a responsibility to protect the future generations so they do not have to endure the insecurity that previous generations experienced. The memory of the last great war is fading as the survivors slip from this earth one by one. Those who remain are now in their elderly years. For them, the chimera of a light show is not a TV talk show or stage lights or a fireworks spectacle at a cantonal fair ground but real concerns about what might come out of the sky or explode on the ground.

Unlike Switzerland and to a lesser extent Austria, France, Germany and Italy are not playing. All are members of NATO because  they understand it is the sole serious military alliance around, the foundation of security and stability. While European leadership has been wanting in recent decades, one can say at least at this moment the leaders of these countries feel a duty of care to protect their populations and butress waning American deterrence in the form of the longstanding US nuclear security blanket. 

Enter French President Emmanuel Macron who expanded what in French is called dissuasion to include many European countries at the nuclear submarine base in Île Longue this week. On X, the essence of this expanded European nuclear deterrence (or dissuasion) doctrine was reduced to an important but powerful axiom: "To be free, one must be feared. To be feared, one must be powerful."

The breakdown of deterrence that Europe now feels in spades because the US is disengaged and overstretched elsewhere is now in the spotlight. Iran has responded to the joint US and Israeli air operations that began last Saturday in the early hours by attacking everywhere, exposing vulnerabilities. One week ago, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was alive. Countries with limited to no experience countering drones were not yet hit. They had not even once been as prepared as Switzerland very much was during the Cold War, with an infrastructure replete with bunkers to withstand a nuclear blast.

This week, countries as far apart and different from one another as Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and even the Azerbaijani exclave of Naxçivan, have learned something about their little patch of sky. It is the same lesson cited in a significant Atlantic article this week that opens with the reflections of then US Army Chief Mark Milley in 2017, later Chairman of the Joint Chiefs regarding the military's "future priorities". Milley noted the need for "new long-ranged missiles, improved tanks, and better-armed, better-trained infantrymen" but none of this matters and would all in fact be "useless" without "more effective air defense." "None of the above will matter if you are dead," Milley said.

Hundreds of Patriot missiles were deployed to shoot down incoming over the Gulf States in the last week, a week where we can say the world truly changed. What of those that Switzerland ordered to protect its little patch of sky that are again delayed, as Swissinfo reports? It was also not so long ago that US President Donald Trump joined by Vice-President JD Vance hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House to tell him he did "not have the cards" and that he was insufficiently thankful. Now that Iranian Shahed drones are bombarding US installations across the Gulf and those of US allies, one country it turns out has quite the experience knocking these out of the sky, namely Ukraine. Ultimately, it is performance in battle not a business model that determines who has the cards. 

On a housekeeping note, earlier this week we sent out an email with an invite to our first event in Bern, a pub quiz at Papa Joe's on March 23 and 7pm. We have already heard from a fair many who will be in attendance and we are grateful for that. The answers to the sample questions are at the end of this week's Monitor.

That said, welcome to the Alpine Security Monitor! You can subscribe (and become a paid subscriber!) for weekly updates on security and geopolitics as it concerns the Alpine region, namely Austria, Czechia, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia and Switzerland (ok, little Liechtenstein and Monaco too when merited). If this was forwarded to you, welcome! Questions, complaints, musings, lucrative offers, misguided rants and related ephemera can all be addressed to the management, amanda.rivkin@securitydialogue.org. Now let's get to the week's news from around the Alpine region.

ALPINE COUNTRIES REACT TO IRAN CONFLICT:

• Politico has an overview of how every country in the EU responded to the strikes on Iran:
  • Austria and Czechia condemned Iran's strikes on the Persian Gulf in Israel and sees "a window" for "peace, security and prosperity" for the Iranian people.
  • France said Iran's response was "disproportionate" and offered assistance to "protect its closest partners" in the region and later expressed willingness, alongside Germany and the UK, to assist by "enabling proportionate defensive action to destroy Iran's capability" to launch drones and missiles.
  • Germany warns of an Iraq-style quagmire (a term popularized during the Vietnam war) "but said Berlin won't lecture Washington". Chancellor Merz said the joint statement with France and the UK was less open-ended than initially perceived but nonetheless offered his country's support "in a defined and limited manner".
  • Italy is neither into it nor not having it. Operational lines are open to the Gulf Task Force and lines are open to Oman and Qatar.
  • Switzerland is not in the EU, and therefore not including in the Politico article. However, one can assess retrospectively that its "good offices" did not seem to matter much in preventing this conflict.

Day One – Saturday February 28:
Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto stuck in Dubai with family (Reuters)
Swiss cancels flights to Tel Aviv, Dubai (Swissinfo)

Day Two – Sunday March 1:
Italy's Defense Minister Guido Crosetto to return to Italy aboard military aircraft (Reuters)
Missile lands near Abu Dhabi port with stranded German cruise ship passengers (Euronews) 

Day Three – Monday March 2:
Italy says Gulf countries requested air defense and anti-drone systems (Reuters)
Over 4,000 Swiss tourists stranded across the region due to the conflict (Swissinfo)

Day Four – Tuesday March 3:
France deploys fighter jets to UAE to protect its military bases (Le Monde)
First two repatriation flights bring French to Paris as 400,000 citizens in region (Euronews)
Trump says Germany 'helping us out' during Merz White House meeting (Politico)
Iran's rep in Geneva unironically whines US and Israel have 'no limits' (Swissinfo) 

Day Five – Wednesday March 4:
France deploys Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean (France24) 

Day Six – Thursday March 5:
Italy pledges air defense assistance for allies in the Gulf region (The New York Times)
France and Italy among countries sending naval assets to protect Cyprus (Defense News)
France authorizes temporary presence of US military aircraft on bases (Reuters)
Fully booked special flight brings passengers to Zürich from Oman (Swissinfo)
Swiss Airlines cancels more flights to Dubai and Tel Aviv (Swissinfo)

ZEEBRUGGE PORT, BELGIUM – French assist Belgium in halting shadow fleet ship

• The Guardian reports Sunday that French and Belgian forces boarded a Russian shadow fleet ship, the Guinean-flagged Ethera, "used by Russia to circumvent western sanctions over the war in Ukraine" which "was believed to be on its way back to Russia".
• The first hint of the operation came on X Sunday when French President Emmanuel Macron shared footage of the raid and wrote, "Europeans are determined to cut off the sources of funding for Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine by enforcing sanctions."
• The Belgian federal prosecutor noted the ships captain, who is Russian, was taken in for questioning and a criminal investigation had been opened. Documents found on the ship also appear to have been falsified. Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken said the vessel would be escorted to port in Zeebrugge where it would be confiscated. Belgium's Prime Minister Bart de Wever congratulated the Belgian military on the "successful operation".

BRUSSELS, BELGIUM – Switzerland signs deal with EU on exchange of air passenger data

• Swissinfo reports Thursday that "Justice Minister Beat Jans and European Commissioner for Migration Magnus Brunner signed a deal to share flight passenger data" for the purpose of fighting terrorism and fighting crime.
• The agreement between Switzerland and the EU "governs the transfer of data from the European Union (EU) airlines to Switzerland, as well as the processing and exchange of data between competent national authorities". Switzerland approved the treaty last November and the Swiss parliament passed the Air Passenger Data Act, with certain provisions already in effect since the start of the year and other parts coming into force by the end of this year. The agreement still has to be ratified by the EU.
• Brunner said at a joint press conference before the agreement was signed that the agreement will make European citizens, including the Euroskeptic Swiss, "safer".

ÎLE LONGUE, FRANCE – Macron says country to increase nuclear deterrence for Europe

• The Guardian reports Monday French President Emmanuel Macron said in a speech at the nuclear submarine base in Île Longue that his country would increase its nuclear warheads as deterrence needs to be "strengthened" in these fraught and perilous times.
• Post-Brexit, France is the EU's sole nuclear power. As such, Macron said he would "allow for temporary deployment of its nuclear armed aircraft to allied countries for exercises". He also said he sought to "Europeanise" the continent's nuclear deterrent which has fallen under the American nuclear security blanket in the postwar period. The AP notes France's current level of nuclear warheads is below 300 and the increase would be the first such boost "since at least 1992."
• This is a rough reality for many Europeans who struggle with the idea of peace being guaranteed by the bomb, a lack of understanding of deterrence, a deep commitment to feelings which do not actually concern an adversary's assessment unless these can be manipulated against a state under attack. Many Europeans, in so far as they have realized, are kind of annoyed that their 37-year vacation from history is over and America is engaged elsewhere as it might disrupt holidays, weekends and evenings; strategic autonomy is good on a nine-to-five or ten-to-six-thirty basis but France's nuclear dissuasion would also theoretically cover after hours, weekends and holidays.

BERLIN, GERMANY – Bundestag ratifies 'aerial security treaty' with Austria

• Defense News reports last Friday that the German Bundestag ratified an "aerial security treaty" with Austria focused on airspace surveillance.
• The new law permits Germany and Austria "to pursue 'non-military' airspace violations or unknown threats across their shared border without requiring prior approval from the other capital." This would encompass manned and unmanned aircraft which are "suspected of acting illegally" or of having breached either nation's airspace without prior authorization. Berlin and Vienna also "agreed to share day-to-day air surveillance reports."
• Negotiations for this treaty began back in 2018 but were stalled by the COVID-19 pandemic and other priorities. Austria's equivalent body the Nationalrat ratified the treaty already back in 2024. Germany and Switzerland already have a similar treaty in place dating back to 2007 and Germany and Austria implemented a similar treaty in 2017.

VIENNA, AUSTRIA – First military satellite that hunts GPS, Galilleo interference to launch

• Breaking Defense reports Monday that the Ministry of Defense of Austria announced plans to launch its first satellite known as BEACONSAT, developed by the Vienna-based startup GATE Space, from SpaceX's Falcon 9 in one year's time.
• Austrian Defense Minister Klaudia Tanner wrote on X that the new satellite would detect and collect data on "jammers that intentionally or unintentially disrupt signals".
• GATE Space was founded in 2022 backed by ROI Ventures, an Austrian venture capital firm, and the Boston-based Techstars.

ZÜRICH, SWITZERLAND – Swiss financial regulator liquidates MBaer Bank

• Agence France Presse reports Saturday that Switzerland's financial regulatory authority, known as FINMA, said Friday that MBaer Bank, which had been "singled out by the US Treasury for dealings with 'illicit actors' linked to Russia and Iran had been liquidated."
• Last Thursday, the US Department of the Treasury "moved to cut the Zurich-based MBaer Merchant Bank off from the US frinancial system" after it "funnelled over a hundred million dollars through the US financial system" on behalf of individuals connected to the Russian and Iranian regimes. FINMA noted that roughly 98% of the bank's 700 clients could be considered high-risk. Last year, MBaer held $6.4 billion (€5.4 billion) in assets.
• Finma said it had moved against the bank by stripping it of its license three weeks prior after the regulatory authority concluded that MBaer "does not have an adequate structure in place for combating money laundering, thus enabling clients to circumvent official asset freezes". FINMA said it was "prohibited from communicating publicly on the measures" while MBaer appealed the decision and that "liquidators had been appointed." The bank was established in 2018 by Michael Baer, a great-grandson of the famed private banker Julius Baer.

GENEVA, SWITZERLAND – Latest round of US-brokered Ukraine, Russia talks conclude

• Swissinfo reports last Friday that the latest round of US-brokered talks between Ukraine and Russia concluded in Geneva last Friday.
• The discussions, attended by US President Donald Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner "included humanitarian issues and prisoners of war". Ukraine's negotiator Rustem Umerov said after, "We expect concrete results for the return of our citizens." Later on social media he said host country Switzerland had taken part in some of the discussion.
• The next round of talks is expected to take place this month in Abu Dhabi.

BERN, SWITZERLAND – Parliament rejects neutrality initiative

• Swissinfo reports Thursday that the House of Representatives rejected an initiative to enshrine "permanent and armed neutrality in the Constitution."
• Unlike the Senate, the House of Representatives did not request a counter proposal, voting against by 109 to 77 with two abstentions. The debate took place over eight hours prior to being defeated 128 to 60. The far-right Swiss People's Party "sought to recommend a Yes vote to the electorate." The federal government previously voted against the initiative and any counter-proposal.
• However, no one should be under the illusion this is the end of the country's endless and truly masturbatory discussions (or monologues) about neutrality at a time of European and global crises and conflict. The effort to avoid reality and responsibility drums on like the white noise it is with a popular initiative scheduled for this year. Given that neutrality is a national fetish akin to Anne Frank's secular sainthood in Germany, it is still theoretically possible that a majority could vote in favor and if the cantons approve it. Switzerland could still get its "perpetual and armed" neutrality in the Constitution, rigidly constricting the government's options and ability to adapt to the challenges of the modern world.

BERN, SWITZERLAND – Parliament does away with statute of limitations for murder

• Swissinfo reports Tuesday that the Parliament voted to do away with a 30-year statute of limitations in the case of murder.
• The House of Representatives followed the Senate in voting to overturn the existing legislation that placed a 30-year statute of limitations on murder cases.
• The canton of St. Gallen was responsible for bringing the reform forward but was pressing for crimes involving life sentences to have statute of limitations removed whereas the Senate's Legal Affairs Committee opted to restrict the removal of the statute of limitations for homicide. However, the majority of that committee wished to maintain the existing law but the far-right "Swiss People's Party prevailed with the help of the Radical Liberals and the Centre Party."

BERN, SWITZERLAND – New law says police must state perpetrators' nationality

• Swissinfo reports Tuesday that a new law passed the Senate following earlier approval by the House of Representatives which states "police should always mention the nationality of the perpetrators of crimes when they communicate."
• The far-right Swiss People's Party (SVP) proposal received "the support of a majority of elected representatives from the Centre and the Radical Liberal parties" in passing the legislation in the Senate by a vote of 23 to 16.
• The proposal has its origins in an inititivae from SVP parliamentarian Benjamin Fischer that called for the police, "when informing the public, to give the age, sex and nationality of perpetrators, suspects and victims, provided that there are no grounds for privacy protection".

MILAN, ITALY – Notorious mafia boss Benedetto Santapaola dies in prison

• The BBC reports Tuesday that "One of Italy's most notorious and ruthless mafia bosses, Benedetto Santapaola, believed to be have masterminded the murder of one of Italy's most famous anti-mafia prosecutors in 1992, has died in prison aged 87."
• Nicknamed "Nitto," Santapaola was captured in 1993 "after years on the run" and spent more than 30 years in jail "for instigating a series of killings and other attacks." He rose through the ranks of the Sicilian mafia in the city of Catania beginning in the 1970s and became known as il caciatore or "the hunter".
• He was previously convicted of the 1984 murder of journalist Pippo Fava as well as for the car bombing near Palermo in May 1992 that murdered judge Giovanni Falcone, a notorious case that is considered "one of the most brutal attacks on the judiciary in Italy's history." Falcone's wife and three police officers were also killed in that attack. That attack was followed by a separate car bomb attack that killed another anti-mafia judge, Paolo Borsellino along with his bodyguards, weeks later. He was also convicted of killing another Catania mobster Alfio Ferlito and three officers while "Ferlito was being transferred to prison in 1992."

FORLÌ, ITALY – Ambulance driver suspended, investigated over five suspicious deaths

• The Guardian reports Tuesday that prosecutors in the northern Italian town of Forlì are investigating a 27-year-old ambulance driver who has been suspended by the Italian Red Cross "on suspicion of murdering five elderly patients."
• All five patients died "while or soon after" they were transported in the ambulance of the driver. Investigators are concerned that the man "may have administered harmful substances to patients during transfers between hospitals and care homes in the Emilia-Romagna region." Additional cases are also being investigated and there are concerns that the number of alleged victims could increase "as the inquiry widens."
• The most recent case involved an 85-year-old woman who went into cardiac arrest last November. All the cases involve patients who suffered cardiac arrest "while being transported in the ambulance operating out of Folimpopoli, near Forlì." One patient is said to have died en route while others died afterwards.

Stay safe and take care on your little patch of sky and those on the ground, too!

Answer key for the Geopolitics Pub Quiz sample questions that went out with the announcement Monday:

What is A2/AD?

Anti-access/area denial. A2/AD is a military strategy to control access to and within an operating environment.

What was the phrase used by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel to signal to the public that the country was prepared to accept over one million refugees that came to the country in 2015? Answer can be in German or English.

Wir schaffen das or we can do it.

Prior to becoming Turkey's foreign minister, Hakan Fidan held what role in the Turkish government?

Fidan was the long serving intelligence chief or head of MIT (Turkish intelligence).

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