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All eyes on France as government falls, blockade everything protests lead to arrests and the country responds to Rubio

All eyes on France as government falls, blockade everything protests lead to arrests and the country responds to Rubio

Europe's most dangerous hour since World War II has arrived in the form of a swarm of 19 drones from Russia that entered Polish airspace Tuesday night. From the quiet Alps, the news was there waiting Wednesday morning when people physically awoke. Mentally though, the front remains far.

This was not the only escalation making news this week, far, far from it. In fact, it was one of those weeks where decades happen, as Lenin famously put it. In the Alpine region, the big news was of course the fall of the French government Monday and the silliness of the pantomime of mythic French protests in the form of "bloquons tout," or "blockade everything" Wednesday. The new Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu spent his first day in office Wednesday experiencing a "baptism of fire". Vive la France – a free state is a beautiful thing that we hopefully will never have to miss should it go someday.

Elsewhere signs of escalation were unmissable: Israel's airstrike on Qatar and the gruesome assassination of far-right rabble rouser Charlie Kirk in the US state of Utah. The never ending Epstein saga (we are now at the stage of leafing through the dead man's fiftieth birthday book) claimed another scalp, this time the UK ambassador to the US. Temperatures are climbing and it would behoove us all to take a bit of eternal advice from our Anglo friends across the channel, namely to keep calm and carry on. 

Welcome to the new Alpine Security Monitor. Currently in its pilot stage, you can still sign up and subscribe (and become a paid subscriber!) for weekly updates on security and geopolitics as it concerns the Alpine region, namely Austria, Czechia, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia and Switzerland (ok, little Liechtenstein and Monaco too when merited). More news to come in the weeks ahead, but first the top security stories of the week.

 

PARIS, FRANCE – French government falls, "blockade everything" riots ensue

  • Politico reports France's new Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu faced a "baptism of fire" from protesters operating under the mantra "Bloquons tout" ("blockade everything") who promised to bring the country to a grinding halt Wednesday, just one day after he replaced former Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, who lost a confidence vote Monday.
  • Paris Police Chief Laurent Nuñez announced an "exceptional" deployment of 80,000 police and gendarmerie across the country to quell unrest. Authorities received authorization to "intervene systematically" to disrupt the effort to blockade the country. Nuñez offered that the "leaderless nature of the movement has fueled concerns abouts its unpredictability." Le Monde reports 540 were arrested with police estimating just under 200,000 took part while the CGT Union put the figure slightly higher at 250,000.
  • Euronews investigated the movement's shadowy origin last week in a piece that offers strong circumstancial evidence pointing to Russia but origin stories offer little to challenge the mythos of a movement that "began gaining steam" after Bayrou announced plans in July to "squeeze the 2026 French budget by €43.8 billion". According to Politico, "the French government is also investigating whether foreign agitators attempted to amplify the movement," and while comparisons are being made to the Yellow Vest movement a few years ago, organic amplification of the push to blockade everything seems to have come from the far left.

 

PARIS, FRANCE – French Foreign Ministry responds to Rubio's accusation over Gaza

  • Politico reports that France's Foreign Ministry has "clapped back at Marco Rubio," the US Secretary of State and National Security Advisor (and national archivist and USAID administrator – may its memory be a blessing), last Friday after he said "France's plan to recognize a Palestinian state scuttled Gaza truce talks."
  • Using the mantle of a new X account dedicated to fighting disinformation, @FrenchResponse, the Foreign Ministry responded in a thread that kicks off, "the recognition of the State of Palestine did not cause the breakdown of hostage negotiations." The thread notes Macron's own post on X announcing the decision came five hours and 22 minutes after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on his own X account the breakdown of truce talks in the brutal war of attrition. One issue with this line of argumentation: it presumes Netanyahu's public announcement coincided with the actual breakdown of those talks, nor does it illuminate why those talks broke down.
  • Last Friday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot announced the launch of the @FrenchResponse account in order to "push back against all those abroad who want to damage France's image." Another issue with this line of argumentation: might the result of this effort create "the oxygen of amplification" as a seminal report by Data & Society termed it way back in 2018?

 

PARIS, FRANCE – Health Ministry letter about wartime preparation deemed authentic

  • Euronews reports a letter dated July 18 that first surfaced in the French satirical magazine Le Canard Enchaîné last week addressed to French health facilities instructing them to prepare for a wartime situation with resulting casulaties and shortages by March 2026 has been deemed authentic.
  • While the Alpine Security Monitor withheld coverage due to the uncertain provenance, the factchecking unit of Euronews called EuroVerify notes French Health Minister Catherine Vautrin did not deny the authenticity of the letter instructing hospitals to prepare for "a major engagement" in an interview with French broadcaster BFM-TV. Further, a spokesperson for the ministry told EuroVerify that France's Health Ministry was preparing for "various risks and threats that could affect the French healthcare system," including "a potentially large influx of victims from abroad" and "military patients in the civilian health system."
  • Hold fire on those war monger accusations: "Macron is seeking to implement preventive measures should a conflict occur, rather than engaging in the active pursuit of war". Rather, Macron "supports European rearmament and the so-called Coalition of the Willing," while also stressing "the importance of deterrence". He has shifted from a posture in 2022 of "not humiliating Russia" to calling Putin "an ogre" who must "keep eating" for "survival".

 

DUSSELDORF, GERMANY – ISIS symapthizer convicted in Solingen festival knife attack

  • The AP reports a 27-year-old Syrian man identified only as Issa Al H., in accordance with strict German privacy laws, was convicted Wednesday of killing three at a diversity festival last year in the western German town of Solingen.
  • The incident took place on August 24, 2024 as Solingen celebrated its 650th anniversary. It was one of several violent incidents involving immigrant suspects in the run up to the general election last February that served to push the issue of migration and asylum to the forefront of the political agenda, delivering votes for hard line parties and candidates.
  • The state court in Dusseldorf convicted the man of three counts of murder, 10 counts of attempted murder and of being a member of the so-called Islamic State. In the most German detail of all, the court found he carries "particularly serious" guilt – meaning he will not be eligible for parole in 15 years as is customary in Germany. In late May when the trial opened, the man said in a statement read by his lawyer that he had "brought severe guilt upon myself," and "killed innocent people, not infidels." The judge, Winifred van der Grinten, said the man was "massively" radicalized since 2019 and used his TikTok profile to spread jihadist propaganda.

 

DRESDEN, GERMANY – Charges brought against eight extremists over neo-Nazi state plot

  • Deutsche Welle reports federal prosecutors in Dresden brought charges against eight far-right extremists based in the eastern state of Saxony who allegedly "expected the imminent collapse of the German state" and sought to violently exploit the circumstances of their imagined "day X" to establish a neo-Nazi state.
  • The alleged "Saxony Separatists" have been in custody since their arrest last November but have now been charged with "establishment of and membership in a terrorist organization, along with the preparation of a treasonous undertaking". Once their independent state was established, they plotted the violent removal of minorities along with representatives of the German government as it existed before their "day X".
  • Fun crowd: prosecutors allege they trained for "day X" with "target practice and paramilitary exercises," drilling for "house-to-house combat or night marches and forced marches were practiced." The search of the suspects' properties in November of 2024 led authorities to uncover "knives and machetes, ammunition, combat helmets, camouflage and other equipment." One of the men was a former local politician with Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD).

 

BERLIN, GERMANY – Suspected arson attack leaves 50,000 homes without power

  • Reuters reports "about 50,000 households" were left without power on Tuesday in the German capital Berlin, the result of "a suspected arson attack on two pylons in a southeastern district".
  • Police spokesperson Anja Dierschke said a special police unit "tasked with solving politicially motivated crimes" was in charge of the investigation and that a political motive could not be ruled out.
  • Unnamed police sources told the newspaper Tagesspiegel that police were investigating whether the incident was connected to an announcement by electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla that it planned to build a development center in the Treptow-Koepenick district. Police reportedly see parallels to a similar incident in 2024 carried out by a far-left group which halted production at a Tesla factory outside Berlin.

 

BERLIN, GERMANY – New law requires critical infrastructure providers to secure sites

  • Reuters reports Germany approved new legislation Wednesday that legally obliges the operators of critical infrastructure to secure their sites and networks.
  • Repeat sabotage attacks on German infrastructure have become accute since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The new law "implements a European Union directive" and extends to sectors including energy, finance, health, transportation and water. In order to comply with the law, "Companies must prepare inventories of vulnerable infrastructure and register them." Infrastructure firms that provide services to 500,000 are classified as critical.
  • One problem: the law looks at ways to harden facilities but does not necessarily detail measures against infiltration. Insider threats are often the biggest risk to any enterprise.

 

BERLIN, GERMANY – German government extends trusteeship of Rosneft assets

  • Reuters reports Germany's Economy Ministry once again extended the trusteeship over Rosneft assets in the country by six months Monday until March 10 of next year, the sixth time the trusteeship has been extended since September 2022 following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
  • Rosneft's German assets includes stakes in Schwedt, MiRo and the Bayernoil refineries.
  • The trusteeship protects Rosneft's ownership stake in these assets rather than nationalizing them while preventing Russia from accessing profits or selling them off.

 

DUSSELDORF, GERMANY – Death of 16 political candidates leads to conspiracy theorizing

  • Sky News reports that the death of 16 political candidates in the run-up to local elections in North Rhine Westphalia (NRW), including seven from the far-right Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) party, has led to rampant conspiracy theorizing as some officials try to tamp down the wild speculation.
  • Voters are set to head to the polls on September 14 in the most populous region of Germany where the "online conspiracy theories have been running rife," with AfD party leader Alice Weidel noting the deaths but not refuting any convoluted claims. A spokesperson for the NRW chapter of the party however said there was "currently no indication of unnatural deaths."
  • Police have confirmed the natural deaths of four of the 17 candidates while the late AfD candidates ranged in age from 59 to 80 – not exactly spring chickens.

 

ULM, GERMANY – Office of Israeli defense firm Elbit attacked, five arrested

  • Ynet News reports activists broke into the office of Israeli defense contractor Elbit in Ulm, Germany on Monday, throwing red paint at the entrance, spray painting graffiti, hurling smoke grenades and smashing windows, leading to five arrests.
  • The investigation into the incident was transferred to the Security and Counter-Terrorism Center. Police did not confirm the office belonged to Elbit though several media outlets in Germany did.
  • The incident is the latest at Elbit facilities across Europe, with the defense firm recently shuttering a factory in Bristol, England "that had long been the target of pro-Palestinian demonstrations," and two individuals in Kielce, Poland pouring red paint on the Elbit booth at a defense bazaar and shouting pro-Palestine slogans last week.

 

BERLIN, GERMANY – Lawmakers approve €1 billion purchase of Israeli drones

  • Bloomberg reports German lawmakers Wednesday approved a €1 billion ($1.2 billion) purchase of Israeli-made Heron drones from Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI).

 

LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND – Car drives into pro-Palestine crowd, two injured

  • Swissinfo reports prosecutors opened an investigation Monday after a 56-year-old man drove his BMW into a crowd of pro-Palestine demonstrators who were seated at an intersection on Sunday.
  • The incident occurred in central Lausanne near the Chauderon Bridge where an estimated 1,500 to 2,000 pro-Palestine demonstrators had blocked traffic by sitting down at the intersection. While video shows numerous cars and a bus had stopped, the man drove in the opposite lane of traffic, slowed down and then accelerated before going into the crowd. Miraculously only two people were slightly injured but those injuries were not serious enough to merit hospitalization. The vehicle however "was damaged in the process".
  • While the driver could face up to five years in prison or a monetary penalty for "unscrupulously" putting lives in danger, Swissinfo reports he was released Monday "after spending two nights in prison." Authorities said he did not act out of "political or ideological reasons," and added, "His state of health may have played a role" without elaborating on what that might mean.

 

PRAGUE, CZECHIA – Czechia, Hungary and Romania dismantle Belarus spy network

  • The Kyiv Independent reports The Czech Security and Information Service announced Monday that Czechia, Hungary and Romania had "jointly dismantled a Belarusian espionage network operating across Europe".
  • The network was organized by the Belarusian KGB "to recruit agents and collect sensitive intelligence." A former deputy of the Moldovan intelligence service was among those exposed for allegedly passing information to the Belarusians while Romania said its anti-organized crime agency known as DICOT had "implemented an arrest warrant for a 47-year-old suspect on treason charges," who "previously held management positions within Moldova's SIS," short for Security and Intelligence Service.
  • Czech authorities emphasized the efforts of the Belarusian KGB were successful in part because of "the ability to move freely across Europe." Prague also retaliated by declaring one official at the Belarusian embassy persona non grata who the AP notes was a Belarusian KGB agent "operating under the cover of a diplomat." He was given 72 hours to leave Czechia.

 

LJUBLJANA, SLOVENIA – Slovenia bars Bosnian Serb separatist leader Milorad Dodik

  • Reuters reports Slovenian Deputy Prime Minister Matej Arcon said Thursday that Bosnian Serb separatist leader Milorad Dodik has been barred from entering Slovenia.
  • Arcon said the measure was "effective immediately". Slovenia is the latest country to ban Dodik, the de facto leader of the Republika Srpska enclave within Bosnia and Herzegovina.
  • Dodik has theoretically been sentenced to one year in prison and banned from politics, both measures he has wholly ignored.

 

Stay safe and beware the escalation ladder! 

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