Welcome to the new Alpine Security Monitor. This project is only in its pilot stage at present. However, you can sign up and subscribe for weekly updates on security and geopolitics as it concerns the Alpine region, namely Austria, Czechia, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia and Switzerland (ok, little Liechtenstein and Monaco too when merited).

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Now, let's get started as it has been a busy week in the world and in the Alpine region.

White smoke: Robert Prevost of Chicago becomes Pope Leo XIV

• Fitting that the first item in the first pilot edition of the new Alpine Security Monitor is the first American Pope, Chicago-born Robert Prevost.
• It’s a geopolitical earthquake at a time of “America First” and Russian revanchism, with Politico noting, “One of the president’s most prominent Catholic allies, Steve Bannon, called Leo the ‘worst pick for MAGA Catholics,’ deeming him the ‘anti-Trump pope.’”
• Prevost’s X account challenged J.D. Vance’s use of “ordo amoris” in posts this February, tweeting one article from The National Catholic Reporter entitled, “JD Vance is wrong: Jesus doesn’t ask us to rank our love for others”.

US, Chinese trade officials to meet in Geneva this weekend

• Politico reports, “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet in Geneva on Saturday and Sunday with Vice Premier He Lifeng, a member of the Chinese Communist Party’s ruling Politburo and China’s top economic official.”
• Politico adds, “In a face-saving gesture, both sides attempted to portray the high-level meeting as coincidence of the top officials being in Geneva at the same time.” Bessent told Fox he would be in Switzerland to negotiate with the Swiss while He said he was there at the invite of the Swiss government.
• Politico notes, “The setting presents a neutral location for the countries to try to ratchet down trade tensions. Geneva is also the home of the World Trade Organization”.

Thursday marked 80 years since the end of World War II in Europe

• The war also led to the Soviet (Russian) occupation of half of the continent, from the re-occupation of the Baltic states, Ukraine and Moldova to the installation of friendly regimes in East Germany, Poland, the former Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania. For the Cold War period from 1945-1991, Russia also enjoyed friendly regimes in the former Yugoslavia and Albania.
• Then as now, Belarus remains firmly under Russian tutelage to this day.
• Among European leaders, only Slovak President Robert Fico and Serbian President  Alexander Vučić planned to celebrate with the Russians on Red Square on Friday.
• Slovak media reports that the pro-Kremlin motorcycle gang the Night Wolves arrived in Bratislava last weekend on their way to Berlin as part of a “Victory Ride” to Berlin ahead of the May 9 celebrations in Moscow’s Red Square (Europeans celebrate Victory in Europe or VE Day on May 8). In the Slovak capital, the Night Wolves reportedly were met by only a handful of supporters and roughly an equal number of demonstrators.

Friedrich Merz becomes Germany’s new Chancellor, popular Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to stay on in new coalition

• The Bundestag did not back Merz as the new Chancellor in the first round vote, however in a second vote he received enough votes to become the country’s new chancellor.
• In an article published ahead of the vote in the Bundestag, the Axel Springer-owned Politico memory-holed why Merz’s popularity sank (which might be why there had to be two votes), namely his pre-election deal over migration with the far-right AfD that caused Germans to take to the streets in great numbers.
• Germany’s most popular politician at present and avid supporter of Ukraine, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, a Social Democrat, will stay on as defense minister in the new coalition government.

Germany’s AFD sues Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) after the party is classified as a “right-wing extremist organization”:

• Germany’s AfD party sued Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) on Monday May 5 after the party was labeled a “right-wing extremist organization,” subjecting it to “greater surveillance from authorities.” The lawsuit was filed in the western German city of Cologne where Germany’s domestic intelligence service is headquartered.
• The lawsuit comes after the party placed second in national elections in February.
• US Secretary of Everything Marco Rubio tweeted on May 2 after Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution announced the ban: “not democracy—it’s tyranny in disguise.”
• Germany’s Foreign Office responded to Rubio: “We have learnt from our history that rightwing extremism needs to be stopped.”
• Previously, US Vice-President J.D. Vance met with AfD leader Alice Weidel in February when he was in Germany for the Munich Security Conference where he gave that speech. She is a resident of Switzerland and she and her party were not invited to the famed geopolitical conference.
• Also in February, Trump advisor and DOGE baron Elon Musk also told Germans gathered at an AfD party conference to be proud of their history again in a video message to the party. In January, Musk also made that gesture twice at Trump’s Inauguration.
• Hans Georg Maaßen, the man who used to run Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution but is now under investigation by that very office after being pushed out in 2018 put out an “I am the son of the father but I do nazi it” tweet. In 2022, investigators found Maaßen had corresponded with members of the Reichsburger movement that sought to overthrow the country’s democratic government following sweeping arrests.
• According to AP after the BfV made their announcement, “Oleksii Makeiev, Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, told German news agency dpa that he’s concerned about AfD’s ties to Russia in light of the classification.”  

Merz first day in office: travel to Paris, then Warsaw

• In a highly symbolic gesture one day ahead of commemorations marking the end of World War II across Europe, the new German chancellor traveled first to Paris.
• According to Politico, “Macron hailed "a new page in the Franco-German friendship" while Merz said he already shared "a deep personal bond" with the French president.” The two countries also vowed to set up a joint national security council.
• As for Ukraine, the best on offer is “security guarantees” after the Americans work out the peace. Hmm. The two leaders also said they continue to work towards a 30-day ceasefire.
• Germany instituted tighter border checks on border with Poland on Tuesday May 6. Ahead of Merz visit to Warsaw, Thorsten Frei, Chief of Staff of incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz, said: “Anyone who tried to enter Germany illegally must expect that the German border will be the end of the road from 6 May.”

Munich-based dronemaker Quantum Systems raises €160m in new capital investments

• According to the FT, “Munich-based Quantum Systems has raised €160mn led by Balderton Capital, in the London-based venture firm’s first defence tech investment, alongside strategic backers Hensoldt and Airbus Defence and Space. The deal, which also includes existing investors including US venture capitalist and Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel, values Quantum at more than €1bn, according to people familiar with the terms.”
• The newspaper notes, “Quantum’s technology brings together drone hardware, software and artificial intelligence to build autonomous systems for real-time ‘aerial intelligence,’” adding, “Its products have been used by countries including Germany, Ukraine and the US.”
• Co-CEO and founder Florian Seibel is a former German military helicopter pilot placed his bets in using commcercially available technology to take on Germany’s traditional defense industries. “They are slow, they are expensive, they are arrogant,” he told the FT, noting his company’s products were ready and available when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
• Seibel told the FT that last year, the company generated €110m in revenue and is on track to hit €200m this year.

Defense expenditures boosting Germany’s flailing SMEs amid economic downturn

• The FT reports on how small to mid-sized German enterprises, known as the “Mittelstand” that comprise the traditional backbone of the country’s economy, are pivoting to defense manufacturing amid the country’s “punishing industrial slowdown.”
• The German economy contracted the last two years, “the most protracted slump in postwar history.”
• Hans-Jürgen Völz, chief economist at lobbying group BVMW, told the FT, “Almost all sectors of the economy can benefit” from increased defense expenditures.
• Companies mentioned that are seizing on the rearmament expenditures include engine manufacturer Deutz, laser specialist Trumpf and chemical producer Alzchem.

German-Swiss-Austrian military exercise TRIAS 25 concludes

• Friday May 9 is the last day of the four week-long TRIAS 25 military exercise, the largest foreign exercise involving Swiss ground troops in 30 years, according to Swiss Info. The Swiss international public broadcaster notes, “Participation is voluntary, as there are no so-called marching orders for service abroad in Switzerland,” and media reports last year suggested that the military “had trouble finding the necessary soldiers.”
• As for the scenario, while Russia was not mentioned (as countries are never directly named in exercise scenarios as is custom), the three militaries are drilling for an attack scenario where “the enemy is using hybrid threats such as disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks and is carrying out attacks on critical infrastructure.” Sound familiar? It should.
• What those fixated on neutrality should know: Swiss exercise leader Brigadier Christoph Roduner told Swiss Info that while Switzerland does not follow NATO’s decision-making processes, “it’s exciting when we can compare ourselves with the NATO performance standards of others on the ground to see whether we easily fulfil them.” Maybe the Bundeswehr isn’t the best metric there? Old adage in NATO: the alliance moves at the pace of the slowest nation.

France first European country to host Syria’s new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa

• French President Emmanuel Macron became the first European leader to host Syria’s new president and former Al-Nusra Front leader Ahmed al-Sharaa on Wednesday.
• Macron asked al-Sharaa to protect all Syrians, for the perpetrators of recent violence to be brought to justice and called for the gradual lifting of European sanctions. For his part, al-Sharaa said there was no justification for not lifting all sanctions against his country that remain in place from the Assad era.

At the Sorbonne, EU announced €500 million for US-based researchers

• French President Emmanual Macron along with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the fund Monday at the Sorbonne in an effort to lure US-based researchers to Europe after Elon Musk’s DOGE took a chainsaw to the US federal budget for scientific research.
• France in particular is keen to attract researchers focused on public health, especially infectious diseases, climate change, artificial intelligence, biodiversity and space.
• In his speech, Macron said, "Nobody could have imagined that this great global democracy whose economic model depends so heavily on free science... was going to commit such an error," adding, "We refuse a diktat consisting of any government being able to say you cannot research this or that."

French cryptocurrency entrepeneur’s dad targeted in kidnapping for ransom case

• French police freed the father of a wealthy cryptocurrency entrepreneur after he was the target of a kidnapping for ransom attempt. The kidnappers managed to chop off one of his fingers. Five people were detained after the man was freed in the Parisian suburb of Essonne.
• Previously this year, the co-founder of the cryptowallet firm Ledger, David Balland, was kidnapped with his wife, both of whom were released after 24-48 hours in an incident that led to 10 arrests.  

WSJ: Youth extremism and online radicalization on the rise across Europe

• Quite the lede: “Terrorists in Europe are getting younger, and authorities are struggling to find them.” The article continues, “In recent months, dozens of adolescents as young as 14 have been arrested across Europe for allegedly plotting attacks against music venues, shopping centers and sites of worship.”
• Some examples given include:
  • A girl from Montenegro, age 14, who was picked up in Austria in May of last year for allegedly plotting to attack “nonbelievers.” She had an ax, a knife and ISIS propaganda in her home.
  • Also in Austria a 14 year old was arrested for plotting to attack an unspecified train station.
  • Last summer, three Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna were cancelled over terrorism fears with the suspects involved all between the ages of 17 and 19. The CIA labeled that attack “well-developed” and warned the risk was to hundreds of people.
  • A 14 year old arrested in Belgium with neo-nazi views who plotted to attack a mosque.
  • Four youths arrested in Belgium and three in France, some as young as 13, who discussed how to acquire weapons and plotted to attack a central Brussels concert venue, Botanique.
• WSJ notes, “While the U.S. has long had a problem with school shooters, the growing teenage threat to Europe comes primarily from Islamists.” The paper warns that the “unprecedented spread of extremist propaganda” has been “accelerated partly by artificial intelligence; the powerful hold on youths by social media such as TikTok with increasingly sophisticated means of retaining user attention,” and events like the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza that have both a polarizing effect on society as well as becoming a powerful signifier for in-group identity-based politics among young people.
• Far-right extremism also represents a growing threat across Europe, with the US being one of the main exporters of such ideology at present.
• Youth taking shelter in extremist ideologies online are “driven by individual grievances and vulnerabilities, such as psychological distress, loneliness and marginalization, experts say. Online, they find a community around collective crises and traumatic events, such as fear of migration or the war in Gaza, which they connect to their personal struggle.”
• The big takeaway: “Almost all young extremists are radicalized online,” which is “making it harder for authorities to spot them.” Further, “extremist views that share central tenets, such as misogyny and totalitarianism, often blend, experts say. Young white supremacists admire the doctrine of Islamic State. Young jihadists borrow the language and aesthetics of the far-right. Rather than issue orders, terror groups flood social media with propaganda that gives young people an ideological framework and inspiration to carry out attacks, experts say.”
• Of note: 93% of terrorist attacks carried out in the West in the last five years were carried out by so-called “lone-wolves,” or individuals acting alone.

Reporters Without Borders smuggles Kharkiv-born Russian journalist to France

• Ekaterina Barabash, 64, faced 10 years in a Russian prison for supporting Ukraine before she was smuggled to Paris in a two and a half week-long journey with the help of press freedom NGO Reporters Without Borders.

Swiss lawyer fined 6900 CHF fine for spitting on the Russian Embassy last year

• A Swiss lawyer was out for a jog on a Thursday evening in February of 2024 when he spat on the sign in front of the Russian Embassy in Bern, an act that the Bern cantonal police on guard did not tolerate and arrested the man following a short pursuit.
• He was fined 6,900 CHF in the end with an additional legal cost of 500 CHF after being sentenced by the Office of the Attorney General in a case that required the political approval of Justice Minister Beat Jans as “The green light from the highest political level was needed for the investigation to take place at all. Such permission to prosecute is rarely granted.”
• Despite the steep fine, the lawyer said he stood by his opinion and vowed to donate three times as much to an organization supporting the Ukrainian victims of Russian torture.

Finally this week, an American tourist was impaled by a fence at the Colosseum trying to take a picture

• While media are not publishing pictures of the incident, the unidentified 47-year-old was “found hanging on the metal bars at the Piazza del Colosseo, piercing his spine,” after he attempted to climb a fence to take a picture according to People. He was reportedly stuck for 20 minutes before paramedics could reach him. He required surgery and some 80 stitches.  

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